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Region 6 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#94 of 100 in Division 2
#23 of 26 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #77 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D2 (-549 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 47-13 A #180 Otsego (5-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 77
08/28 L 56-7 A #183 Genoa Area (5-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 37 (3%), perf. rating 65
09/04 L 56-12 A #91 Bluffton (7-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 80
09/11 W 41-6 H #637 Woodward (Toledo) (1-7) D3 R10, pick: W by 23 (91%), perf. rating 97
09/18 L 35-13 A #412 Northwood (4-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 25 (6%), perf. rating 62
09/24 L 45-14 A #436 Waite (6-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 14 (19%), perf. rating 45
10/02 W 29-14 H #576 Scott (1-7) D3 R10, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 85
10/08 L 48-7 H #167 Lima Senior (7-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 38 (1%), perf. rating 64
10/15 H #490 Start (4-4) D2 R6, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/22 A #614 Rogers (2-6) D2 R6, pick: W by 14 (82%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.40 ( 5.50- 8.00) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Lose: 4.15 ( 2.25- 5.35) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(25%) 4W: 7.40 ( 7.35- 8.00) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(59%) 3W: 4.15 ( 4.10- 6.70) out, proj. out
(16%) 2W: 2.85 ( 2.25- 3.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(25%) WW: 7.40 ( 7.35- 8.00) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lakewood (7-1) 76%
( 3%) WL: 6.10 ( 5.50- 6.70) out
(55%) LW: 4.15 ( 4.10- 5.35) out
(16%) LL: 2.85 ( 2.25- 3.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 70.5, #553, D2 #94), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (1-5, 67.9, #566, D2 #94), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (1-4, 73.6, #536, D2 #90), 8% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 71.1, #550, D2 #93), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 65.6, #575, D2 #95), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 61.4, #601, D2 #97), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 62.2, #598, D2 #97), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 65.2, #583, D2 #95), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 64.6