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Rankings
#57 of 104 in Division 2
#13 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #93 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D2 (-193 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 12-7 A #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 124
08/29 L 17-7 H #113 Findlay (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 122
09/05 W 20-14 A #355 Marion Harding (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 113
09/12 L 41-12 A #86 Anthony Wayne (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 21 (11%), perf. rating 102
09/19 A #642 Rogers (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 43 (99%)
09/26 H #638 Woodward (Toledo) (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/03 H #432 Start (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/10 H #555 Bowsher (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/17 A #576 Waite (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/24 H #507 Scott (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.30 ( 8.50-21.65) 99% in, 90% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Butler (3-1) 16%
Lose: 16.65 ( 9.70-19.45) 98% in, 71% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Butler (3-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(86%) 8W: 18.45 (15.40-21.65) 100% in, 96% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Butler (3-1) 16%
(12%) 7W: 15.45 (12.55-19.95) 100% in, 58% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Butler (3-1) 17%
( 1%) 6W: 13.05 ( 9.85-16.55) 94% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), La Salle (3-1) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(86%) WWWWWW: 18.45 (15.40-21.65) 100% in, 96% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Butler (3-1) 16%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 16.05 (13.65-19.95) 100% in, 65% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Butler (3-1) 16%
( 1%) WWWLWW: 15.57 (13.55-18.25) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), La Salle (3-1) 16%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 15.43 (13.20-18.05) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), La Salle (3-1) 17%
( 5%) WWLWWW: 15.05 (12.55-17.70) 100% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Butler (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 115.0, #253, D2 #57), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 118.7, #227, D2 #52), likely in, 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 113.7, #266, D2 #62), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 111.7, #277, D2 #61), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 55% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 109.2, #282, D2 #61), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Last season 108.5