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Rankings
#29 of 104 in Division 2
#8 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #33 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D2 (-202 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 48-6 H #386 Sandusky (1-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 3 (45%), perf. rating 158
08/29 L 21-13 A #89 Buckeye (4-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 133
09/05 W 34-0 A #337 North Olmsted (0-4) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 157
09/12 L 20-19 H #101 Berea-Midpark (3-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 10 (72%), perf. rating 137
09/19 A #71 Avon Lake (1-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/26 H #65 Olmsted Falls (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/03 A #463 Elyria (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/10 H #3 Avon (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/17 A #87 North Ridgeville (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/24 H #215 Midview (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
47% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.00 ( 4.90-26.60) 77% in, 44% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 13%
Lose: 9.50 ( 2.50-24.75) 33% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 7W: 19.50 (16.30-24.75) 100% in, 98% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Rhodes (3-1) 15%
(21%) 6W: 15.55 (11.40-20.35) 99% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 17%
(30%) 5W: 11.85 ( 7.75-18.55) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 22%
(31%) 4W: 8.25 ( 4.90-13.85) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 7%) 3W: 5.25 ( 2.50- 9.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWLWW: 19.45 (16.30-23.15) 100% in, 98% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Rhodes (3-1) 15%
( 9%) LWWLWW: 16.35 (13.40-20.35) 99% in, 58% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 16%
( 6%) WLWLWW: 14.95 (12.05-18.50) 98% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 17%
(12%) LLWLWW: 12.15 ( 9.05-16.55) 62% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 21%
( 9%) LWWLLW: 12.00 ( 9.00-15.50) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 21%
( 7%) WLWLLW: 10.65 ( 7.75-14.10) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 25%
(28%) LLWLLW: 8.25 ( 5.35-11.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 41%
( 7%) LLWLLL: 4.95 ( 2.50- 8.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 140.8, #100, D2 #29), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 146.8, #79, D2 #23), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 142.9, #84, D2 #23), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 150.8, #61, D2 #18), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 128.7, #162, D2 #39), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 133.8