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Rankings
#40 of 102 in Division 3
#9 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #23 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #43 in D3 (-18 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-14 H #456 Westlake (2-4) D2 R6, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 114
08/28 W 28-26 H #341 North Olmsted (3-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 104
09/04 W 28-14 A #234 Elyria Catholic (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 141
09/11 L 31-7 A #92 Avon Lake (3-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 106
09/18 L 40-26 H #121 Berea-Midpark (4-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 20 (11%), perf. rating 113
09/25 L 31-27 A #173 North Ridgeville (2-4) D2 R6, pick: L by 10 (26%), perf. rating 122
10/02 H #14 Avon (4-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/09 A #477 Elyria (0-6) D1 R1, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/16 A #54 Olmsted Falls (4-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/23 H #196 Amherst Steele (3-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 2 (45%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
84% (bubble if 3-7), 25% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.77 (12.35-23.75) 100% in, 94% home, 26% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), bye 26%
Lose: 10.45 ( 6.80-19.40) 84% in, 25% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Buchtel (3-3) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 16.98 (14.10-21.90) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 29%
(44%) 5W: 12.60 ( 9.85-16.45) 99% in, 50% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Buchtel (3-3) 19%
(52%) 4W: 9.15 ( 6.85-14.15) 71% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 25%
( 2%) 3W: 8.45 ( 6.80-10.65) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 30%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWW: 16.60 (14.10-19.40) 100% in, 99% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 28%
( 1%) LWWL: 13.50 (11.20-15.80) 100% in, 71% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Buchtel (3-3) 20%
(42%) LWLW: 12.55 ( 9.85-15.45) 99% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Buchtel (3-3) 19%
(51%) LWLL: 9.10 ( 6.85-12.40) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 26%
( 2%) LLLL: 8.45 ( 6.80-10.65) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 30%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 119.2, #225, D3 #40), 84% (bubble if 3-7), 25% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 5 (3-2, 118.1, #231, D3 #41), 76% (bubble if 3-7), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 4 (3-1, 115.9, #250, D3 #42), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 3 (3-0, 119.3, #228, D3 #42), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 119.7, #222, D3 #39), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 33% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 126.1, #173, D3 #30), 68% (bubble if 4-6), 36% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 128.9, #156, D3 #26), 64% (bubble if 4-6), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 129.4