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Rankings
#47 of 107 in Division 3
#14 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #19 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #33 in D3 (-3 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 48-14 A #471 Westlake (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 135
08/29 W 27-20 A #337 North Olmsted (0-4) D2 R6, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 117
09/05 W 41-20 H #265 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 21 (88%), perf. rating 143
09/12 L 39-7 H #71 Avon Lake (1-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 5 (38%), perf. rating 97
09/19 A #101 Berea-Midpark (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 22 (8%)
09/26 H #87 North Ridgeville (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/03 A #3 Avon (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/10 H #463 Elyria (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/17 H #65 Olmsted Falls (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/24 A #100 Amherst Steele (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
13% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.90 ( 7.65-24.85) 56% in, 22% home, 4% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 11%
Lose: 7.50 ( 4.45-20.85) 9% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Copley (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 18.00 (15.00-20.85) 100% in, 93% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 14%
( 6%) 6W: 13.85 (10.70-18.70) 91% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Copley (3-1) 13%
(21%) 5W: 10.50 ( 7.05-15.70) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 15%
(69%) 4W: 7.00 ( 4.50-12.00) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 3W: 6.32 ( 4.45- 9.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLWLW: 13.70 (11.20-17.65) 94% in, 20% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Revere (3-0) 15%
( 1%) LLLWWW: 13.20 (10.70-17.40) 86% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Copley (3-1) 13%
( 5%) LLLWWL: 10.70 ( 7.05-14.20) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Copley (3-1) 18%
( 5%) LWLWLL: 10.65 ( 7.55-15.70) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Revere (3-0) 16%
( 4%) WLLWLL: 10.65 ( 7.65-14.00) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Revere (3-0) 15%
( 7%) LLLWLW: 9.95 ( 7.55-13.90) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 19%
(69%) LLLWLL: 7.00 ( 4.50-10.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Revere (3-0) 25%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 6.32 ( 4.45- 9.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 120.3, #215, D3 #47), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (3-0, 130.4, #154, D3 #33), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 129.8, #158, D3 #31), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 130.3, #149, D3 #29), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 125.7, #176, D3 #37), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 129.5