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Rankings
#43 of 102 in Division 3
#11 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #27 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D3 (-75 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-14 H #450 Westlake (2-6) D2 R6, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 115
08/28 W 28-26 H #349 North Olmsted (3-5) D2 R6, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 104
09/04 W 28-14 A #296 Elyria Catholic (3-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 133
09/11 L 31-7 A #104 Avon Lake (4-4) D2 R6, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 105
09/18 L 40-26 H #95 Berea-Midpark (5-3) D1 R1, pick: L by 20 (11%), perf. rating 116
09/25 L 31-27 A #223 North Ridgeville (2-6) D2 R6, pick: L by 10 (26%), perf. rating 115
10/02 L 56-12 H #13 Avon (6-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 40 (1%), perf. rating 110
10/09 W 40-6 A #476 Elyria (0-8) D1 R1, pick: W by 25 (95%), perf. rating 137
10/16 A #50 Olmsted Falls (6-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 H #214 Amherst Steele (4-4) D2 R6, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
56% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.95 (12.35-18.20) 100% in, 68% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Revere (5-3) 19%
Lose: 9.10 ( 6.85-13.75) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 16.55 (14.85-18.20) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Revere (5-3) 28%
(47%) 5W: 11.55 ( 9.85-14.10) 97% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), St Marys Memorial (5-3) 25%
(52%) 4W: 8.05 ( 6.85-10.25) 17% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 44%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WW: 16.55 (14.85-18.20) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Revere (5-3) 28%
(47%) LW: 11.55 ( 9.85-13.75) 97% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), St Marys Memorial (5-3) 25%
(52%) LL: 8.05 ( 6.85-10.25) 17% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 44%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 117.1, #238, D3 #43), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 6 (3-3, 119.2, #225, D3 #40), 84% (bubble if 3-7), 25% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 5 (3-2, 118.1, #231, D3 #41), 76% (bubble if 3-7), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 4 (3-1, 115.9, #250, D3 #42), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 3 (3-0, 119.3, #228, D3 #42), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 119.7, #222, D3 #39), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 33% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 126.1, #173, D3 #30), 68% (bubble if 4-6), 36% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 128.9, #156, D3 #26), 64% (bubble if 4-6), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 129.4