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Rankings
#16 of 100 in Division 2
#3 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #16 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #14 in D2 (+274 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 38-17 A #58 Mentor (2-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 123
08/28 W 42-7 A #153 Brunswick (2-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 183
09/04 W 38-21 H #88 Strongsville (1-2) D1 R1, pick: W by 19 (86%), perf. rating 164
09/11 A #530 Elyria (0-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/18 H #11 Avon (1-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/25 H #92 Amherst Steele (3-0) D2 R6, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/02 A #147 Avon Lake (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 H #104 Berea-Midpark (2-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/16 H #228 Midview (3-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/23 A #158 North Ridgeville (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
26.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 85% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.85 ( 7.00-34.10) 99% in, 99% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 85%
Lose: 21.60 ( 7.65-31.25) 98% in, 93% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 63%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 31.60 (27.55-34.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(52%) 8W: 26.95 (21.95-31.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(26%) 7W: 22.50 (16.70-27.85) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 82%
(10%) 6W: 19.10 (12.90-25.90) 100% in, 99% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 41%
( 3%) 5W: 15.70 (10.75-21.10) 100% in, 92% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Rhodes (1-2) 16%
( 1%) 4W: 12.60 ( 8.90-17.90) 95% in, 44% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Fremont Ross (1-2) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWWW: 31.60 (27.55-34.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(50%) WLWWWWW: 26.95 (21.95-30.35) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 4%) WLWWWWL: 24.00 (20.25-27.75) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
( 5%) WLWLWWW: 23.65 (19.05-27.20) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
( 7%) WLWWLWW: 22.15 (17.70-25.45) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 90%
( 8%) WLLWWWW: 21.65 (16.70-25.35) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 54%
( 2%) WLWLLWW: 19.20 (15.35-23.45) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 58%
( 1%) WLLWLWL: 14.95 (11.80-18.10) 100% in, 86% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Springfield (Holland) (2-1) 14%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 156.6, #44, D2 #16), likely in and likely home, 85% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 161.0, #38, D2 #13), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 95% home (maybe if 5-5), 75% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 149.6, #56, D2 #18), 79% (bubble if 4-6), 62% home (maybe if 5-5), 34% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 153.4, #45, D2 #15), 82% (bubble if 4-6), 66% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Last season 155.4