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Rankings
#20 of 104 in Division 2
#4 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #11 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #19 in D2 (+183 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-28 H #20 Mentor (4-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 156
08/29 W 29-15 H #188 Brunswick (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 144
09/05 W 24-21 A #93 Strongsville (3-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 149
09/12 W 38-0 H #463 Elyria (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 44 (99%), perf. rating 138
09/19 A #3 Avon (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/26 A #100 Amherst Steele (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/03 H #71 Avon Lake (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/10 A #101 Berea-Midpark (3-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/17 A #215 Midview (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 H #87 North Ridgeville (3-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
23.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 4-6), 82% home (maybe if 5-5), 37% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 31.10 (16.65-35.00) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 91%
Lose: 21.70 ( 6.40-30.25) 95% in, 82% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#2-out), bye 37%
Based on eventual number of wins
(24%) 8W: 27.60 (24.45-30.60) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 89%
(28%) 7W: 23.40 (19.10-27.55) 100% in, 99% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 47%
(23%) 6W: 19.65 (14.90-23.55) 100% in, 96% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Rhodes (3-1) 12%
(15%) 5W: 15.75 (11.20-20.45) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 15%
( 8%) 4W: 12.45 ( 8.10-15.65) 67% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 18%
( 2%) 3W: 9.50 ( 6.40-11.45) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) LWWWWW: 27.60 (24.45-30.25) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 89%
( 8%) LWLWWW: 24.00 (20.90-26.70) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#7), bye 59%
( 6%) LLWWWW: 23.55 (20.90-26.65) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 56%
( 6%) LWWLWW: 23.30 (19.55-25.90) 100% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), bye 48%
( 6%) LWWWWL: 22.25 (19.10-25.40) 100% in, 99% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Rhodes (3-1) 15%
( 5%) LWLLWW: 19.70 (17.20-22.30) 100% in, 99% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Rhodes (3-1) 13%
( 5%) LLLLWL: 12.45 ( 8.10-15.05) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 19%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 9.50 ( 6.40-11.45) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 35%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 148.6, #65, D2 #20), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 82% home (maybe if 5-5), 37% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 150.0, #57, D2 #17), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 76% home (maybe if 5-5), 34% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 147.7, #67, D2 #20), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 152.2, #54, D2 #17), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 149.7, #56, D2 #13), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 149.5