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Rankings
#43 of 80 in Division 1
#9 of 19 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #47 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D1 (-315 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 47-42 H #163 Brunswick (1-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 118
08/28 W 43-33 A #208 Euclid (1-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 15 (77%), perf. rating 139
09/04 H #80 Brecksville-Broadvw Hts (1-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 9 (31%)
09/11 H #104 Amherst Steele (2-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/18 A #222 Midview (2-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/25 A #5 Avon (1-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/02 H #126 North Ridgeville (0-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/09 A #38 Olmsted Falls (1-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/16 A #470 Elyria (0-2) D1 R1, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/23 H #111 Avon Lake (0-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 2 (45%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
3.13 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 3-7), 36% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.96 ( 1.48- 8.09) 98% in, 71% home, 13% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 14%
Lose: 3.06 ( 0.71- 6.98) 72% in, 21% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Austintown-Fitch (0-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 6.82 ( 6.40- 7.20) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 71%
( 9%) 7W: 5.85 ( 5.32- 6.30) 100% in, 99% home, 19% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 19%
(17%) 6W: 4.91 ( 4.47- 5.46) 100% in, 87% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), St Ignatius (1-1) 17%
(20%) 5W: 4.00 ( 3.58- 4.62) 100% in, 40% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Austintown-Fitch (0-1) 14%
(21%) 4W: 3.13 ( 2.80- 3.76) 97% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Strongsville (1-1) 16%
(18%) 3W: 2.34 ( 2.02- 3.04) 56% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Strongsville (1-1) 17%
(11%) 2W: 1.55 ( 1.36- 1.88) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWLWWWW: 6.82 ( 6.41- 7.16) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 70%
( 6%) WWWLWLWW: 5.80 ( 5.33- 6.28) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 18%
( 7%) LWWLWLWW: 4.86 ( 4.59- 5.24) 100% in, 84% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), St Ignatius (1-1) 20%
( 4%) LWWLWLWL: 4.02 ( 3.71- 4.39) 100% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Austintown-Fitch (0-1) 13%
( 5%) LLWLWLWW: 3.89 ( 3.58- 4.33) 100% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Austintown-Fitch (0-1) 19%
( 6%) LLWLWLWL: 3.06 ( 2.81- 3.42) 96% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Strongsville (1-1) 19%
( 9%) LLWLLLWL: 2.29 ( 2.08- 2.71) 55% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (0-1) 16%
(10%) LLLLLLWL: 1.55 ( 1.36- 1.87) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), St Edward (2-0) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 132.5, #134, D1 #43), 76% (bubble if 3-7), 33% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 134.2, #126, D1 #45), 70% (bubble if 3-7), 33% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 141.7, #88, D1 #33), 86% (bubble if 3-7), 64% home (maybe if 5-5), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 143.3