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Rankings
#43 of 100 in Division 2
#10 of 26 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #21 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D2 (-282 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 20-14 A #85 Lake (Uniontown) (4-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 135
08/28 L 21-14 A #253 Brush (3-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 33 (95%), perf. rating 107
09/04 L 49-42 H #136 North Royalton (3-3) D2 R5, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 120
09/11 L 62-21 A #14 Avon (4-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 38 (1%), perf. rating 118
09/18 W 42-12 H #477 Elyria (0-6) D1 R1, pick: W by 35 (99%), perf. rating 125
09/25 W 31-27 H #225 Midview (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 10 (74%), perf. rating 123
10/02 A #121 Berea-Midpark (4-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/09 H #92 Avon Lake (3-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/16 A #196 Amherst Steele (3-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/23 H #54 Olmsted Falls (4-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
7.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
25% (likely needs 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.90 ( 7.20-19.50) 69% in, 25% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 18%
Lose: 7.10 ( 3.50-15.80) 13% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 33%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 18.85 (18.70-19.50) 100% home, 15% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Rhodes (3-3) 18%
( 8%) 5W: 14.45 (13.75-16.45) 100% in, 70% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Waite (4-2) 30%
(20%) 4W: 10.85 ( 9.45-13.45) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 35%
(37%) 3W: 7.20 ( 5.90- 9.85) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(34%) 2W: 3.60 ( 3.50- 5.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWW: 18.85 (18.70-19.50) 100% home, 15% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Rhodes (3-3) 18%
( 4%) WWWL: 13.90 (13.75-15.70) 100% in, 65% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Waite (4-2) 35%
( 7%) WLWL: 10.90 (10.75-12.70) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 31%
( 8%) LWWL: 9.60 ( 9.45-11.50) 71% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 43%
( 5%) WLLL: 7.90 ( 7.20- 9.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakewood (5-1) 60%
(25%) LLWL: 7.20 ( 7.00- 8.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakewood (5-1) 48%
( 5%) LWLL: 6.60 ( 5.90- 7.90) out
(34%) LLLL: 3.60 ( 3.50- 5.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (2-4, 126.0, #173, D2 #43), 25% (likely needs 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 125.9, #181, D2 #45), 21% (likely needs 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (0-4, 126.3, #173, D2 #45), 18% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (likely needs 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 128.0, #158, D2 #43), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 134.0, #126, D2 #39), 44% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 149.2, #58, D2 #19), 81% (bubble if 4-6), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 152.4, #49, D2 #16), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 5-5), 43% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 7-3
Last season 152.8