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Rankings
#77 of 104 in Division 2
#20 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #66 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #82 in D2 (-475 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 48-6 A #100 Amherst Steele (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 3 (55%), perf. rating 80
08/29 L 48-14 H #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 12 (27%), perf. rating 78
09/05 W 32-20 H #388 Lorain (1-3) D1 R1, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 114
09/12 L 47-13 A #193 Padua Franciscan (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 10 (28%), perf. rating 75
09/19 A #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 15 (17%)
09/26 H #156 Tiffin Columbian (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/03 H #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/10 A #362 Clyde (0-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/24 H #331 Port Clinton (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 5 (37%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.85 ( 3.15-17.65) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 3.45 ( 1.30-14.75) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 12.40 (10.65-15.20) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out)
( 7%) 5W: 9.40 ( 7.90-13.00) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(17%) 4W: 6.75 ( 5.70-11.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(26%) 3W: 4.75 ( 3.45- 8.50) out, proj. out
(27%) 2W: 2.95 ( 1.80- 6.10) out, proj. out
(22%) 1W: 1.30 ( 1.30- 3.85) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WLLWWW: 9.35 ( 8.50-11.80) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 62%
(10%) LLLWWW: 6.30 ( 5.70-10.05) out
(10%) LLLLWW: 4.85 ( 4.25- 7.95) out
( 6%) LLLLLW: 3.60 ( 3.10- 5.85) out
( 9%) LLLWWL: 3.50 ( 3.45- 6.55) out
(14%) LLLLWL: 2.45 ( 2.45- 5.65) out
( 5%) LLLWLL: 2.35 ( 1.80- 4.75) out
(22%) LLLLLL: 1.30 ( 1.30- 3.85) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 97.9, #386, D2 #77), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 108.1, #304, D2 #69), 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 101.0, #356, D2 #76), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 111.2, #283, D2 #65), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 133.2, #137, D2 #32), 60% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 134.3