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Rankings
#21 of 104 in Division 2
#5 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #6 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D2 (-138 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 43-42 A #93 Strongsville (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 143
08/29 L 21-14 A #73 Lake Catholic (3-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 138
09/05 L 34-7 H #5 Highland (Medina) (4-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 34 (3%), perf. rating 143
09/12 W 39-7 A #215 Midview (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 170
09/19 H #100 Amherst Steele (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 8 (69%)
09/26 H #463 Elyria (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/03 A #65 Olmsted Falls (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/10 H #87 North Ridgeville (3-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 A #3 Avon (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/24 H #101 Berea-Midpark (3-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
15.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 4-6), 34% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.20 ( 5.95-25.65) 76% in, 47% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 12%
Lose: 7.90 ( 2.30-22.50) 26% in, 7% home, proj. out (#5-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 25.50 (25.30-25.65) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 80%
(22%) 6W: 20.10 (19.90-22.50) 100% in, 99% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Rhodes (3-1) 14%
(27%) 5W: 15.30 (14.50-19.95) 99% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 17%
(24%) 4W: 11.40 (10.20-15.25) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 23%
(17%) 3W: 7.30 ( 6.50-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 8%) 2W: 3.60 ( 3.50- 8.40) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 25.50 (25.30-25.65) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 80%
(21%) WWWWLW: 20.10 (19.90-21.30) 100% in, 99% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Rhodes (3-1) 14%
(13%) WWLWLW: 15.20 (15.00-17.50) 100% in, 40% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 18%
( 6%) WWWLLW: 15.20 (14.50-17.05) 99% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 15%
( 8%) WWLLLW: 10.80 (10.20-13.30) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 27%
( 6%) LWLLLW: 7.30 ( 7.20- 9.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 100%
( 6%) WWLLLL: 6.65 ( 6.50- 9.10) out
( 8%) LWLLLL: 3.60 ( 3.50- 6.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 146.6, #71, D2 #21), 60% (bubble if 4-6), 34% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 137.9, #111, D2 #31), 22% (likely needs 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 137.1, #113, D2 #31), 23% (likely needs 5-5), 10% home (likely needs 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 139.8, #103, D2 #26), 30% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 138.8, #108, D2 #25), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 140.3