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Rankings
#81 of 107 in Division 6
#18 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #68 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D6 (-405 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 37-8 H #437 McClain (3-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 44
08/28 W 12-8 H #503 Dawson-Bryant (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 38 (3%), perf. rating 83
09/11 A #644 Paint Valley (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 19 (87%)
09/18 H #284 Zane Trace (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/25 A #198 Unioto (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/02 A #466 Huntington (1-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/09 A #641 Southeastern (3-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/16 H #469 Piketon (2-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/23 H #607 Westfall (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
4-5 record
6.33 Harbin points (divisor 90)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
11% (bubble if 5-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.11 ( 0.89-22.22) 12% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 14%
Lose: 4.11 ( 0.50-13.78) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 11.89 ( 9.67-16.11) 93% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Versailles (2-1) 14%
(17%) 5W: 8.89 ( 6.44-14.72) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 16%
(37%) 4W: 6.33 ( 3.50-11.39) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out), Zane Trace (3-0) 20%
(27%) 3W: 4.56 ( 1.78-10.06) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(11%) 2W: 3.11 ( 0.89- 6.72) out, proj. out
( 3%) 1W: 2.11 ( 0.50- 4.17) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLLWWWW: 11.50 ( 9.67-15.06) 92% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Versailles (2-1) 15%
(10%) WLLLWWW: 9.06 ( 7.06-12.22) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 17%
( 6%) WLLWWLW: 8.33 ( 6.44-11.61) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 19%
(31%) WLLLWLW: 6.06 ( 4.28- 9.56) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Zane Trace (3-0) 25%
(15%) WLLLWLL: 4.72 ( 2.94- 7.67) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 50%
( 7%) WLLLLLW: 3.78 ( 1.78- 6.50) out
( 6%) WLLLLLL: 2.83 ( 0.89- 5.50) out
( 3%) LLLLLLL: 2.11 ( 0.50- 4.17) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-1, 64.6, #577, D6 #81), 11% (bubble if 5-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-5
Week 2 (1-1, 67.0, #576, D6 #81), 11% (bubble if 5-4), 2% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 4-5
Week 1 (0-1, 50.2, #637, D6 #98), 1% (must have at least 3-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-8
Week 0 (0-0, 61.0, #604, D6 #83), 14% (bubble if 5-4), 5% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 2-7
Last season 62.0