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Rankings
#71 of 101 in Division 4
#16 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #90 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D4 (+13 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 37-8 A #577 Adena (1-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 110
08/28 W 34-7 H #646 Northwest (McDermott) (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 82
09/04 W 56-0 H #644 Paint Valley (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 104
09/11 A #694 East Clinton (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 48 (99%)
09/18 H #378 Circleville (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/25 H #129 Chillicothe (3-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/02 A #400 Washington (1-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/09 H #140 Jackson (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #291 Miami Trace (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/23 A #572 Hillsboro (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
7.30 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
17% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.44 ( 2.41-23.64) 17% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 10%
Lose: 4.33 ( 2.36-12.85) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 17.08 (14.60-20.51) 100% in, 92% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 10%
( 6%) 8W: 13.25 ( 9.96-18.19) 98% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 12%
(16%) 7W: 9.97 ( 6.38-15.78) 49% in, 3% home, proj. out (#6-out), Valley View (1-2) 12%
(29%) 6W: 7.30 ( 4.82-12.85) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Valley View (1-2) 16%
(36%) 5W: 4.88 ( 2.96-10.33) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(11%) 4W: 4.07 ( 2.41- 7.51) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLWWWW: 16.90 (15.01-19.10) 100% in, 88% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 12%
( 4%) WWLWLWW: 12.94 ( 9.96-18.19) 98% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Oakwood (3-0) 12%
(10%) WWLWLLW: 9.51 ( 6.38-13.15) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Valley View (1-2) 13%
( 3%) WLLLLWW: 7.90 ( 5.43-10.78) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), London (2-1) 14%
(13%) WWLLLLW: 7.35 ( 4.82-11.29) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Valley View (1-2) 21%
(11%) WLLWLLW: 6.94 ( 4.97-10.18) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), London (2-1) 18%
(32%) WLLLLLW: 4.73 ( 2.96- 7.71) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Urbana (2-1) 50%
(11%) WLLLLLL: 4.07 ( 2.41- 7.51) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 89.2, #437, D4 #71), 17% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 92.6, #413, D4 #67), 33% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 82.0, #483, D4 #75), 16% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 71.2, #548, D4 #87), 9% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 76.5