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Rankings
#96 of 105 in Division 4
#24 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #71 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D4 (-238 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 20-0 H #611 Adena (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 86
08/29 L 46-24 A #544 Northwest (McDermott) (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 42
09/05 W 35-22 A #622 Paint Valley (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 5 (39%), perf. rating 78
09/12 W 54-0 H #696 East Clinton (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 34 (98%), perf. rating 79
09/19 A #242 Williamsburg (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 37 (1%)
09/26 H #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/03 A #142 Jackson (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 45 (1%)
10/10 H #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/17 A #326 Chillicothe (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/24 H #346 Hillsboro (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.17 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.51 ( 6.14-15.88) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 3.17 ( 2.01-16.48) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 9.17 ( 6.85-12.55) 26% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(12%) 4W: 5.94 ( 3.87- 9.88) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(86%) 3W: 3.17 ( 2.01- 5.59) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLLWLL: 6.85 ( 5.08- 9.88) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 100%
( 4%) LLLLLW: 6.09 ( 4.63- 8.87) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 33%
( 3%) LWLLLL: 5.39 ( 3.87- 7.66) out
( 2%) LLLLWL: 5.18 ( 3.87- 8.16) out
(86%) LLLLLL: 3.17 ( 2.01- 5.59) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 68.0, #571, D4 #96), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 64.8, #589, D4 #97), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 62.2, #594, D4 #97), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 71.9, #553, D4 #94), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 64.4, #588, D4 #95), 8% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 57.5