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Region 28 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#58 of 105 in Division 7
#14 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #31 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #96 in D7 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #433 Valley (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 27 (11%)
08/28 H #601 Vinton County (0-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 3 (56%)
09/04 A #548 McClain (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (27%)
09/11 H #604 Adena (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 3 (56%)
09/18 A #667 Southeastern (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/25 A #474 Westfall (0-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/02 H #289 Zane Trace (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/09 H #475 Piketon (0-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/16 A #193 Unioto (0-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/23 A #525 Huntington (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 16 (15%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.18 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (bubble if 4-6), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.88 ( 0.40-27.43) 77% in, 51% home, 19% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 25%
Lose: 4.08 ( 0.00-24.00) 29% in, 13% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 19.05 (15.21-24.00) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 3%) 8W: 15.77 (11.33-21.63) 100% in, 99% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 69%
( 5%) 7W: 12.90 ( 7.90-19.67) 99% in, 92% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 24%
( 9%) 6W: 10.38 ( 6.24-16.14) 98% in, 62% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), New Bremen (0-0) 7%
(12%) 5W: 8.16 ( 4.57-13.56) 82% in, 20% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), New Bremen (0-0) 8%
(15%) 4W: 6.04 ( 2.91-11.65) 37% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), New Bremen (0-0) 10%
(16%) 3W: 4.18 ( 1.70- 9.48) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), New Bremen (0-0) 11%
(17%) 2W: 2.57 ( 0.85- 7.11) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(14%) 1W: 1.16 ( 0.40- 4.69) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 9%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
New Bremen (0-0) 7%
Ridgemont (0-0) 6%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 6%
Minster (0-0) 6%
Most likely second round opponents
Marion Local (0-0) 17%
Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) 13%
Ansonia (0-0) 13%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 9%
New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 70.5, #554, D7 #45), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 54.7