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Rankings
#87 of 107 in Division 6
#18 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #51 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #94 in D6 (-678 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 33-0 H #376 Valley (4-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 48
08/29 L 48-0 A #250 Athens (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 37 (3%), perf. rating 55
09/05 L 35-22 H #571 McClain (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 47
09/12 L 35-0 H #434 Westfall (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 36
09/19 A #611 Adena (1-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/26 A #452 Piketon (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/03 H #580 Huntington (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/10 H #164 Unioto (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/17 A #251 Zane Trace (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/24 H #670 Southeastern (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.32 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.72 ( 0.80-12.60) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Coldwater (2-2) 17%
Lose: 1.11 ( 0.00-10.44) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 6.50 ( 6.45-10.54) 73% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 16%
(18%) 3W: 3.88 ( 3.88- 9.83) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(34%) 2W: 2.32 ( 1.91- 6.15) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(37%) 1W: 1.11 ( 0.80- 4.59) out, proj. out
( 8%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWLLW: 6.45 ( 6.45- 8.01) 67% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 19%
(16%) WLWLLW: 3.88 ( 3.88- 5.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Tri-Village (4-0) 100%
(12%) LLWLLW: 2.67 ( 2.67- 4.08) out
(20%) WLLLLW: 1.91 ( 1.91- 3.33) out
( 1%) LLWLLL: 1.56 ( 1.16- 2.47) out
(34%) LLLLLW: 1.11 ( 1.11- 2.12) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 0.80 ( 0.80- 1.71) out
( 8%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 56.5, #622, D6 #87), 2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 58.6, #611, D6 #84), 8% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 64.7, #587, D6 #79), 23% (bubble if 4-6), 6% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 69.5, #564, D6 #71), 45% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 89.0, #455, D6 #44), 83% (bubble if 4-6), 66% home (maybe if 5-5), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 87.6