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Region 19 playoff probabilities
Region 19 seeding probabilities
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Rankings
#62 of 106 in Division 5
#13 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #95 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D5 (-226 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 41-0 H #653 Northwest (McDermott) (0-8) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 100
08/28 W 43-8 A #640 Wellston (2-6) D5 R19, pick: W by 35 (96%), perf. rating 99
09/04 L 28-7 H #459 Valley (5-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 16 (81%), perf. rating 53
09/11 W 42-21 H #580 Westfall (2-6) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 93
09/18 L 48-34 H #424 Huntington (5-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 10 (27%), perf. rating 68
09/25 L 48-27 A #311 Zane Trace (7-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 25 (6%), perf. rating 79
10/02 W 22-21 H #263 Unioto (6-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 31 (2%), perf. rating 114
10/09 W 41-13 A #667 Paint Valley (0-8) D7 R28, pick: W by 36 (99%), perf. rating 79
10/16 A #552 Adena (3-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/23 A #642 Southeastern (4-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
11.54 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#9 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 33% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.54 ( 8.86-13.00) 100% in, 41% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Fairland (5-3) 48%
Lose: 9.52 ( 6.85-10.83) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #9 (#7-out), Fairland (5-3) 45%
Based on eventual number of wins
(78%) 7W: 11.54 (10.73-13.00) 100% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Fairland (5-3) 48%
(21%) 6W: 9.52 ( 8.71-10.83) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Fairland (5-3) 45%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(78%) WW: 11.54 (10.73-13.00) 100% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Fairland (5-3) 48%
( 2%) WL: 9.67 ( 8.86-10.63) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #9 (#8-#11), Fairland (5-3) 45%
(19%) LW: 9.52 ( 8.71-10.83) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Fairland (5-3) 45%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 84.9, #468, D5 #63), likely in, 29% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 6 (3-3, 79.1, #503, D5 #75), 41% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 80.5, #492, D5 #71), 46% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 83.1, #478, D5 #68), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 84.2, #469, D5 #64), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 104.7, #330, D5 #39), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 105.4, #321, D5 #38), 87% (bubble if 6-4), 57% home (maybe if 8-2), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 84.6, #475, D5 #67), 46% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 83.0