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Rankings
#64 of 106 in Division 5
#16 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #82 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D5 (-238 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-19 A #544 Northwest (McDermott) (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 109
08/29 W 50-8 H #653 Wellston (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 29 (93%), perf. rating 104
09/05 L 24-7 A #376 Valley (4-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 76
09/12 L 42-6 H #251 Zane Trace (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 60
09/19 A #164 Unioto (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 35 (1%)
09/26 H #622 Paint Valley (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 H #670 Southeastern (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/10 H #611 Adena (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/17 A #434 Westfall (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/24 A #580 Huntington (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 18 (88%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.08 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.23 ( 9.62-19.66) 94% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out)
Lose: 10.13 ( 4.03-15.53) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(28%) 7W: 13.10 (10.78-16.53) 85% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 16%
(50%) 6W: 10.08 ( 7.75-13.96) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 24%
(18%) 5W: 8.06 ( 5.38-11.24) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 4W: 6.55 ( 4.28- 9.28) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(28%) LWWWWW: 13.10 (10.78-15.53) 85% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 16%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 10.68 ( 8.46-13.05) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 23%
(45%) LWWWLW: 10.08 ( 7.75-12.40) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 25%
( 2%) LLWWLW: 8.82 ( 6.59-11.14) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Nelsonville-York (4-0) 38%
( 3%) LWWLLW: 8.46 ( 6.59-10.89) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 38%
(11%) LWWWLL: 7.71 ( 5.38-10.53) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 42%
( 2%) LWWLLL: 6.55 ( 5.08- 8.87) out
( 1%) LLWWLL: 6.50 ( 5.08- 9.28) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 85.3, #452, D5 #64), 34% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 91.0, #423, D5 #60), 53% (likely needs 7-3), 13% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 103.0, #337, D5 #38), 79% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 94.6, #407, D5 #53), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 8-2), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 87.5, #471, D5 #63), 54% (bubble if 7-3), 31% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Last season 91.4