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Rankings
#70 of 105 in Division 4
#19 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #99 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D4 (-202 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 29-6 A #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 101
08/29 W 35-28 H #470 Logan Elm (0-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 91
09/05 L 42-35 H #342 Circleville (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 91
09/12 W 35-0 A #622 Paint Valley (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 111
09/19 H #670 Southeastern (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 39 (99%)
09/26 A #251 Zane Trace (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 25 (6%)
10/03 H #611 Adena (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 A #580 Huntington (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/17 H #452 Piketon (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/24 A #164 Unioto (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 33 (1%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
10.63 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (likely needs 8-2), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.22 ( 3.22-20.01) 14% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 14%
Lose: 6.95 ( 2.16-14.77) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 8W: 14.46 (12.89-16.93) 96% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Philo (3-1) 12%
(55%) 7W: 10.63 ( 9.36-14.77) 13% in, proj. out (#9-out), Unioto (4-0) 17%
(31%) 6W: 7.90 ( 6.39-11.39) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 7%) 5W: 5.69 ( 4.02- 8.16) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWWWW: 15.07 (13.80-16.93) 100% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), West Holmes (3-1) 12%
( 5%) WWWWWL: 14.16 (12.89-16.28) 95% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 13%
(53%) WLWWWL: 10.63 ( 9.36-13.35) 13% in, proj. out (#9-out), Unioto (4-0) 17%
( 1%) WLLWWL: 9.27 ( 8.06-10.98) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 50%
( 4%) WLWLWL: 8.26 ( 6.64-10.02) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 50%
(25%) WLWWLL: 7.65 ( 6.39- 9.92) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Unioto (4-0) 75%
( 1%) WLLWLL: 6.34 ( 4.78- 7.81) out
( 5%) WLWLLL: 5.58 ( 4.02- 8.16) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 90.1, #434, D4 #70), 14% (likely needs 8-2), home game unlikely, proj. out at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 84.0, #468, D4 #75), 10% (likely needs 8-2), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 83.5, #478, D4 #81), 27% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 77.6, #527, D4 #88), 21% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 64.1, #591, D4 #96), 12% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 58.1