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Rankings
#76 of 107 in Division 6
#13 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #85 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D6 (-252 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 50-6 H #696 East Clinton (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 79
08/29 L 40-35 A #533 Eastern (Beaver) (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 13 (26%), perf. rating 69
09/06 W 44-0 A #704 Sciotoville Community (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 74
09/12 L 49-7 H #164 Unioto (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 43 (1%), perf. rating 65
09/19 H #251 Zane Trace (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 36 (1%)
09/26 A #670 Southeastern (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 A #622 Paint Valley (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/10 H #434 Westfall (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/17 A #611 Adena (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/24 H #452 Piketon (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 18 (12%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
4.58 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
19% (likely needs 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.33 ( 5.29-14.51) 95% in, 30% home, 5% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out)
Lose: 4.23 ( 0.75-11.59) 19% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 10.27 ( 9.52-12.70) 100% in, 62% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Anna (3-1) 20%
(13%) 6W: 7.20 ( 6.44-10.48) 87% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 16%
(34%) 5W: 4.58 ( 3.87- 8.41) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 21%
(31%) 4W: 3.37 ( 2.66- 7.61) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(16%) 3W: 2.56 ( 1.50- 4.53) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 1.46 ( 0.75- 2.42) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWWWWW: 10.27 ( 9.52-11.59) 100% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Anna (3-1) 20%
( 4%) LWWWWL: 7.30 ( 6.84- 9.57) 88% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 17%
( 8%) LWWLWW: 7.15 ( 6.44- 8.61) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 16%
(27%) LWWLWL: 4.58 ( 3.87- 6.55) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 29%
(13%) LWLLWL: 3.42 ( 2.66- 5.24) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 100%
(16%) LWWLLL: 3.37 ( 2.66- 5.24) out
(13%) LWLLLL: 2.56 ( 1.86- 4.48) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 1.46 ( 0.75- 2.42) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 65.7, #580, D6 #76), 19% (likely needs 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 69.1, #571, D6 #74), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 67.7, #576, D6 #75), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 65.1, #585, D6 #78), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 50.1, #641, D6 #92), 27% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 50.4