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Rankings
#9 of 107 in Division 3
#4 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #11 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #10 in D3 (+253 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-21 A #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 165
08/29 L 33-27 H #46 Taft (4-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 143
09/05 W 35-0 A Linton-Stockton IN (2-2) D6
09/12 L 20-6 H #29 Trotwood-Madison (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 139
09/19 H #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 9 (71%)
09/26 A #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/03 H #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 A #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/24 A #371 Chaminade Julienne (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
19.96 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#5 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
90% (bubble if 5-5), 58% home (likely needs 7-3), 17% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.71 (10.78-28.34) 99% in, 75% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 24%
Lose: 13.31 ( 6.39-23.45) 68% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(16%) 8W: 25.46 (20.71-28.34) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 94%
(38%) 7W: 19.96 (15.67-25.82) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 17%
(30%) 6W: 15.93 (12.29-21.53) 97% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 17%
(15%) 5W: 11.89 ( 8.76-17.40) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 28%
( 1%) 4W: 9.57 ( 6.39-14.37) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(16%) WWWWWW: 25.46 (20.71-28.34) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 94%
( 3%) WWWLWW: 21.33 (17.29-24.26) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 18%
( 2%) LWWWWW: 20.92 (18.65-23.45) 100% in, 99% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Hillsboro (3-1) 14%
(32%) WWWWLW: 19.76 (15.67-23.40) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 19%
( 1%) LWWLWW: 17.37 (14.21-19.51) 99% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 17%
(18%) WWWLLW: 16.03 (12.85-19.51) 97% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 17%
(10%) LWWWLW: 15.42 (12.29-18.10) 97% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 19%
(13%) LWWLLW: 11.74 ( 8.76-14.72) 42% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 31%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 148.2, #66, D3 #9), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 58% home (likely needs 7-3), 17% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 152.6, #50, D3 #7), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 78% home (likely needs 7-3), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 149.5, #59, D3 #7), 76% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 154.2, #46, D3 #7), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 147.4, #72, D3 #10), 75% (bubble if 4-6), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 33% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 145.1