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Rankings
#11 of 102 in Division 3
#4 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #12 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #12 in D3 (+201 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 14-7 A #87 Kettering Fairmont (3-5) D1 R2, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 153
08/28 W 47-6 H Indy Cardinal Ritter IN (4-4) D5
09/04 W 44-12 A #455 Taft (1-7) D4 R16, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 136
09/11 L 34-0 A #22 Trotwood-Madison (7-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 117
09/18 L 10-7 A #46 Bellbrook (8-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 8 (31%), perf. rating 151
09/25 W 33-20 H #159 Bishop Fenwick (4-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (86%), perf. rating 146
10/02 W 50-7 A #512 Carroll (2-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 46 (99%), perf. rating 142
10/09 L 20-7 A #62 Archbishop McNicholas (6-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 1 (47%), perf. rating 130
10/16 H #129 Badin (6-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/23 H #268 Chaminade Julienne (2-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
18.75 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#10 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in, 10% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.75 (15.07-21.73) 100% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-#12), Goshen (8-0) 28%
Lose: 14.31 (10.93-16.43) 100% in, proj. #11 (#10-#12), Goshen (8-0) 29%
Based on eventual number of wins
(70%) 7W: 18.75 (17.18-21.73) 100% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#11), Goshen (8-0) 28%
(28%) 6W: 14.61 (12.95-18.10) 100% in, proj. #11 (#9-#12), Goshen (8-0) 29%
( 2%) 5W: 12.20 (10.93-13.76) 100% in, proj. #11 (#11-#12), Miami Trace (7-1) 27%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(70%) WW: 18.75 (17.18-21.73) 100% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#11), Goshen (8-0) 28%
( 3%) WL: 16.58 (15.07-18.10) 100% in, proj. #11 (#9-#12), Goshen (8-0) 33%
(25%) LW: 14.56 (12.95-16.43) 100% in, proj. #11 (#10-#12), Goshen (8-0) 29%
( 2%) LL: 12.20 (10.93-13.76) 100% in, proj. #11 (#11-#12), Miami Trace (7-1) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 144.6, #71, D3 #7), appears locked in, 63% home (maybe if 7-3), 36% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 145.3, #75, D3 #8), likely in, 74% home (likely needs 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 146.5, #74, D3 #7), likely in, 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 145.8, #71, D3 #5), likely in, 83% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 157.2, #42, D3 #2), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 71% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 152.0, #54, D3 #3), likely in, 87% home (maybe if 6-4), 50% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 153.4, #46, D3 #3), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 72% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 147.7, #64, D3 #7), 81% (bubble if 4-6), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 149.2