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Rankings
#19 of 72 in Division 1
#3 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #11 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #30 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 28-21 H #66 Archbishop Alter (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 136
08/29 L 22-21 H #29 Trotwood-Madison (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 159
09/05 L 24-23 A #40 La Salle (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 157
09/12 W 20-17 A #69 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 154
09/19 H #32 Wayne (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #167 Miamisburg (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 H #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/10 A #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/17 H #35 Springfield (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/24 A #138 Beavercreek (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
12.09 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
67% (bubble if 4-6), 35% home (likely needs 6-4), 12% bye (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.63 ( 5.84-21.27) 96% in, 72% home, 34% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 35%
Lose: 9.67 ( 1.31-18.65) 53% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 7W: 21.07 (21.02-21.27) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(23%) 6W: 16.53 (15.82-20.47) 100% in, 90% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 11%
(27%) 5W: 12.09 (10.67-17.24) 96% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 11%
(23%) 4W: 8.26 ( 6.89-14.17) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Findlay (3-1) 12%
(11%) 3W: 5.69 ( 4.32-10.84) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 2W: 3.83 ( 1.96- 7.06) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(12%) WWWWWW: 21.07 (21.02-21.27) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
( 8%) WWWWLW: 16.63 (16.48-19.20) 100% in, 97% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Springboro (2-2) 12%
(10%) LWWWWW: 15.92 (15.82-18.65) 100% in, 88% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Springboro (2-2) 14%
(12%) LWWWLW: 12.09 (11.94-14.66) 96% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Springfield (1-3) 12%
( 7%) LWWLWW: 11.38 (10.67-14.11) 94% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
(14%) LWWLLW: 8.16 ( 7.45-10.83) 16% in, proj. out (#11-out), Springboro (2-2) 16%
( 7%) LWWLLL: 5.08 ( 4.32- 7.66) out
( 2%) LLWLLL: 3.27 ( 1.96- 5.79) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 152.3, #47, D1 #19), 67% (bubble if 4-6), 35% home (likely needs 6-4), 12% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 151.9, #51, D1 #19), 57% (bubble if 4-6), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 147.9, #65, D1 #24), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 30% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 148.2, #68, D1 #28), 63% (bubble if 3-7), 39% home (maybe if 5-5), 20% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 155.0, #39, D1 #18), 80% (bubble if 4-6), 60% home (maybe if 5-5), 34% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 157.8