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Rankings
#30 of 80 in Division 1
#4 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #26 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #56 in D1 (-235 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 14-7 H #54 Archbishop Alter (2-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 6 (61%), perf. rating 140
08/28 L 20-7 A #45 Trotwood-Madison (1-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 140
09/04 H #49 La Salle (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 10 (28%)
09/11 H #127 Centerville (0-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 12 (76%)
09/18 A #109 Wayne (0-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/25 H #182 Miamisburg (1-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/02 A #303 Northmont (0-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/09 H #43 Springboro (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/16 A #29 Springfield (1-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/23 H #174 Beavercreek (2-0) D1 R2, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
4.19 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#7 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
73% (likely needs 4-6), 41% home (maybe if 5-5), 10% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.11 ( 0.79- 7.57) 96% in, 75% home, 26% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 27%
Lose: 3.29 ( 0.00- 6.47) 65% in, 28% home, 3% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Hilliard Darby (1-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 7.26 ( 7.07- 7.57) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(10%) 7W: 6.21 ( 5.90- 6.61) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 55%
(18%) 6W: 5.23 ( 4.86- 5.76) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Beavercreek (2-0) 12%
(23%) 5W: 4.19 ( 3.89- 4.84) 100% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Hilliard Darby (1-1) 13%
(19%) 4W: 3.28 ( 3.04- 3.94) 90% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), St Johns Jesuit (2-0) 14%
(13%) 3W: 2.38 ( 2.20- 2.97) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 8%) 2W: 1.54 ( 1.37- 1.95) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 0.71 ( 0.65- 0.96) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWWW: 7.26 ( 7.07- 7.57) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 5%) WWWWWWLW: 6.14 ( 5.90- 6.46) 100% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 47%
( 6%) LWWWWWLW: 5.23 ( 5.12- 5.44) 100% in, 98% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Beavercreek (2-0) 14%
( 6%) WWWWWLLW: 5.04 ( 4.86- 5.36) 100% in, 97% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Hilliard Davidson (1-1) 13%
(12%) LWWWWLLW: 4.13 ( 4.07- 4.46) 100% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Hilliard Darby (1-1) 15%
( 7%) LWLWWLLW: 3.28 ( 3.16- 3.54) 91% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), St Johns Jesuit (2-0) 16%
( 4%) LLLWWLLW: 2.38 ( 2.31- 2.76) 13% in, proj. out (#11-out), Whitmer (1-1) 19%
( 2%) LLLLWLLL: 0.71 ( 0.65- 0.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 143.7, #78, D1 #30), 71% (likely needs 4-6), 42% home (maybe if 5-5), 10% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 146.4, #69, D1 #27), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 5-5), 24% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 152.1, #52, D1 #23), 77% (bubble if 4-6), 58% home (maybe if 5-5), 37% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Last season 150.9