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Rankings
#9 of 104 in Division 2
#2 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #29 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D2 (+685 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-7 H #154 Cleveland Heights (0-4) D1 R1, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 182
08/29 W 22-21 A #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (66%), perf. rating 156
09/05 W 16-13 H #35 Springfield (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 161
09/12 W 20-6 A #66 Archbishop Alter (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 171
09/19 H Center Grove IN (4-0) D1
09/26 A Indy Cathedral IN (2-2) D2
10/04 A #547 Dunbar (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 A #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/23 A #6 Walsh Jesuit (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
7-2 record
24.66 Harbin points (divisor 87)
#4 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 81% bye (maybe if 6-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 29.24 (19.95-40.77) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
Lose: 23.19 (13.42-34.30) 100% in, 99% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 64%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 35.25 (29.10-40.77) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(36%) 8W: 29.93 (23.09-36.82) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(46%) 7W: 24.66 (16.79-32.48) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 81%
(14%) 6W: 20.61 (13.42-28.71) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 33%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWW: 35.25 (29.10-40.77) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 1%) WLWWW: 31.77 (26.19-36.82) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(32%) WWWWL: 29.93 (23.09-35.96) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 3%) LWWWW: 29.24 (23.55-34.30) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(13%) WLWWL: 26.56 (19.95-32.19) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 1%) LLWWW: 25.99 (20.24-30.70) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 93%
(31%) LWWWL: 23.86 (16.79-30.01) 100% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 75%
(13%) LLWWL: 20.49 (13.42-25.43) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 30%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 162.2, #29, D2 #9), appears locked in and likely home, 81% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #4 at 7-2
Week 3 (3-0, 155.9, #41, D2 #13), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 5-4), 49% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #4 at 7-2
Week 2 (2-0, 155.4, #46, D2 #15), 98% (bubble if 4-5), 82% home (maybe if 5-4), 36% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #5 at 7-2
Week 1 (1-0, 158.6, #33, D2 #10), 92% (bubble if 3-6), 73% home (maybe if 5-4), 38% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #6 at 6-3
Week 0 (0-0, 139.4, #105, D2 #23), 60% (bubble if 3-6), 33% home (maybe if 5-4), 12% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #10 at 4-5
Last season 137.0