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Rankings
#48 of 105 in Division 4
#11 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #26 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #53 in D4 (-142 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 24-7 A #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 98
08/29 W 21-7 H #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 112
09/05 W 24-17 H #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 111
09/11 L 28-14 H #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 103
09/19 A #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/26 H #66 Archbishop Alter (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/03 A #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/10 A #371 Chaminade Julienne (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 H #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/24 H #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.10 ( 2.85-17.85) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 21%
Lose: 4.95 ( 2.25-14.50) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 9.90 ( 7.75-14.50) 40% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 18%
(47%) 5W: 6.30 ( 5.05-13.90) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(34%) 4W: 5.45 ( 3.45-11.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(14%) 3W: 4.40 ( 2.85- 7.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLLWWW: 9.85 ( 7.85-12.10) 32% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 21%
( 1%) WWLWLW: 9.47 ( 7.75-12.20) 37% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
(45%) WLLWLW: 6.20 ( 5.05-10.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 26%
(10%) LLLWLW: 5.50 ( 4.45- 8.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Roger Bacon (2-2) 50%
(23%) WLLLLW: 5.10 ( 3.95- 9.40) out
(13%) LLLLLW: 4.40 ( 3.35- 7.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 106.5, #321, D4 #48), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 109.5, #290, D4 #46), 10% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 99.0, #371, D4 #57), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 100.6, #355, D4 #52), 9% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 107.8, #292, D4 #44), 27% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 104.9