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Rankings
#12 of 107 in Division 3
#5 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #24 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D3 (+155 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-28 A #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 145
08/29 L 10-7 A #94 Wheelersburg (4-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 140
09/05 L 29-7 H #14 Ironton (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 138
09/12 W 26-0 H #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 18 (86%), perf. rating 158
09/19 A #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/26 H #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/03 H #371 Chaminade Julienne (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/10 A #66 Archbishop Alter (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/24 A #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (likely needs 7-3), 9% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.60 ( 9.20-28.35) 96% in, 45% home, 10% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Talawanda (4-0) 14%
Lose: 12.75 ( 7.50-22.30) 66% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Jackson (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 8W: 24.45 (21.50-28.35) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(34%) 7W: 19.15 (15.75-25.35) 100% in, 89% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Talawanda (4-0) 13%
(50%) 6W: 15.35 (11.65-21.20) 95% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 17%
( 5%) 5W: 12.70 ( 9.40-16.70) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Jackson (3-1) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(10%) WWWWWW: 24.45 (21.50-28.35) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 88%
( 8%) WWWLWW: 20.55 (17.65-24.00) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Bellbrook (2-2) 13%
(27%) WWWWWL: 18.75 (15.75-22.60) 100% in, 87% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Talawanda (4-0) 13%
(49%) WWWLWL: 15.30 (11.65-18.85) 95% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 17%
( 1%) LWWLWL: 12.45 ( 9.90-14.65) 62% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Jackson (3-1) 18%
( 2%) WWWLLL: 12.15 ( 9.40-15.05) 50% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 145.1, #76, D3 #12), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (likely needs 7-3), 9% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 140.5, #99, D3 #17), 83% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (likely needs 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 139.6, #98, D3 #17), 69% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 142.6, #86, D3 #14), 83% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 146.8, #74, D3 #11), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 64% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 148.5