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Rankings
#90 of 104 in Division 3
#20 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #34 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #80 in D3 (-355 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-6 A #283 Stebbins (1-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 61
08/28 W 32-23 A #564 Tecumseh (0-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 85
09/04 H #645 Ponitz Tech (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 29 (95%)
09/11 H #289 Northwest (Cincy) (2-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/18 A #120 Talawanda (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 41 (1%)
09/25 H #106 Archbishop McNicholas (1-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/02 H #54 Archbishop Alter (2-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 47 (1%)
10/09 A #57 Badin (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 48 (1%)
10/16 A #394 Chaminade Julienne (0-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/23 H #164 Bishop Fenwick (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 36 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.20 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.21 ( 1.10- 4.41) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 0.60 ( 0.55- 2.11) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 2.62 ( 2.31- 3.25) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(19%) 3W: 1.81 ( 1.65- 2.42) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(74%) 2W: 1.20 ( 1.10- 1.67) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 0.60 ( 0.55- 0.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWLLLLLL: 2.06 ( 1.80- 2.25) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Chillicothe (2-0) 17%
(12%) WLLLLLWL: 1.75 ( 1.65- 2.04) out
(74%) WLLLLLLL: 1.20 ( 1.10- 1.46) out
( 4%) LLLLLLLL: 0.60 ( 0.55- 0.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 77.5, #513, D3 #90), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 70.5, #560, D3 #96), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 75.0, #530, D3 #91), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 71.2