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Rankings
#5 of 107 in Division 3
#2 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #15 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D3 (+660 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 38-20 A #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 172
08/29 W 66-21 A Dixie Heights KY (0-4) D2
09/05 W 32-18 H #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 145
09/12 W 38-21 A #77 DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 3 (57%), perf. rating 172
09/19 H #110 Bishop Hartley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/26 A #371 Chaminade Julienne (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/03 H #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/10 A #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/17 H #66 Archbishop Alter (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/24 H #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
29.13 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#3 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 88% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.33 (15.11-33.43) 100% in, 99% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#11), bye 91%
Lose: 22.48 (12.84-29.90) 99% in, 89% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#2-out), bye 52%
Based on eventual number of wins
(61%) 10W: 29.13 (24.18-33.43) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(28%) 9W: 25.20 (20.35-30.45) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 89%
( 9%) 8W: 21.47 (16.42-26.72) 100% in, 97% home, 24% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 24%
( 2%) 7W: 18.14 (14.35-23.24) 99% in, 57% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(61%) WWWWWW: 29.13 (24.18-33.43) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(14%) WWWWLW: 25.20 (20.35-29.54) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 87%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 25.20 (21.97-29.90) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 98%
(10%) WWWWWL: 24.90 (21.56-28.94) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#8), bye 88%
( 1%) LWWWWL: 21.42 (17.73-24.95) 100% in, 99% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#11), bye 27%
( 2%) LWWWLW: 21.32 (16.42-25.00) 100% in, 99% home, 23% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 23%
( 5%) WWWWLL: 21.12 (17.23-24.45) 100% in, 95% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 14%
( 1%) LWWWLL: 17.59 (14.35-20.57) 98% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 159.8, #33, D3 #5), likely in and likely home, 88% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 153.7, #47, D3 #6), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 66% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 159.9, #36, D3 #5), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 91% home (maybe if 7-3), 69% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 158.4, #35, D3 #4), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 86% home (maybe if 7-3), 61% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 143.0, #88, D3 #18), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 139.8