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Rankings
#18 of 100 in Division 2
#4 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #45 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D2 (+190 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 33-7 H #256 Hamilton (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 152
08/28 W 42-13 H Dixie Heights KY (0-3) D2
09/04 W 31-7 A #189 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 161
09/11 A #399 Bishop Hartley (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/18 H #57 La Salle (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/25 H #281 Chaminade Julienne (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 34 (98%)
10/02 A #167 Bishop Fenwick (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 H #567 Carroll (2-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/16 A #42 Archbishop Alter (3-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/23 H #105 Archbishop McNicholas (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 18 (88%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
21.89 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#6 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home (maybe if 8-2), 26% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.76 ( 6.02-32.95) 95% in, 70% home, 26% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 27%
Lose: 16.27 ( 6.02-26.94) 84% in, 32% home, 6% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(22%) 10W: 26.11 (21.57-32.95) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 86%
(33%) 9W: 21.89 (17.04-27.70) 100% in, 98% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 19%
(27%) 8W: 18.22 (13.48-25.83) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Withrow (2-1) 13%
(13%) 7W: 14.81 (10.63-20.79) 87% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 17%
( 4%) 6W: 11.61 ( 8.19-16.82) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 25%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(22%) WWWWWWW: 26.11 (21.57-32.95) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 86%
( 8%) WLWWWWW: 22.86 (19.49-26.99) 100% in, 99% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 26%
(21%) WWWWWLW: 21.43 (17.04-27.14) 100% in, 97% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 14%
(18%) WLWWWLW: 18.17 (15.16-22.61) 99% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Withrow (2-1) 13%
( 4%) WWWWWLL: 18.02 (14.91-22.51) 100% in, 62% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Withrow (2-1) 14%
( 7%) WLWWWLL: 14.82 (12.01-19.10) 89% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (3-0) 18%
( 3%) WLWLWLW: 14.25 (10.99-18.03) 78% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 18%
( 3%) WLWLWLL: 11.15 ( 8.19-16.20) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 28%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 152.9, #56, D2 #18), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home (maybe if 8-2), 26% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 151.1, #57, D2 #19), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 8-2), 35% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 159.9, #37, D2 #13), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 79% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 149.2, #60, D2 #19), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 153.0