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Rankings
#73 of 107 in Division 3
#18 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #6 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D3 (-258 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-0 A #167 Miamisburg (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 80
08/29 L 36-7 A #49 Withrow (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 34 (4%), perf. rating 110
09/05 L 56-7 H #46 Taft (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 89
09/12 L 41-0 H #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 79
09/19 A #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 26 (5%)
09/26 H #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/03 A #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/10 H #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 H #66 Archbishop Alter (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.10 ( 1.65-19.35) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 1.10 ( 0.00-16.50) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 3W: 6.70 ( 4.40-10.15) out, proj. out
(36%) 2W: 3.90 ( 2.20- 8.50) out, proj. out
(56%) 1W: 1.10 ( 1.10- 5.15) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLLWWL: 6.15 ( 4.40- 7.25) out
(33%) LLLWWL: 3.90 ( 3.25- 5.00) out
( 2%) WLLLWL: 3.90 ( 2.20- 4.95) out
(55%) LLLLWL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 2.70) out
( 3%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 99.8, #371, D3 #73), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 109.2, #293, D3 #58), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 113.3, #269, D3 #59), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 115.1, #250, D3 #52), 10% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 133.0, #138, D3 #32), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 133.6