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Rankings
#4 of 104 in Division 3
#2 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #32 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D3 (+567 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 27-14 A #63 Tippecanoe (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 26 (12%), perf. rating 169
08/28 W 49-17 A #316 Bellefontaine (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 156
09/04 W 22-0 H #149 Valley View (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 18 (84%), perf. rating 160
09/11 H #281 Chaminade Julienne (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/18 H #42 Archbishop Alter (3-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 2 (45%)
09/25 A #189 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/02 H #412 Franklin (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/09 A #286 Monroe (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/16 A #260 Oakwood (3-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/23 H #332 Ross (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
27.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 93% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.25 (12.75-37.10) 100% in, 99% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#11), bye 94%
Lose: 24.35 (10.95-32.55) 100% in, 97% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#12), bye 67%
Based on eventual number of wins
(39%) 10W: 31.65 (26.35-37.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(46%) 9W: 27.30 (22.05-33.90) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(12%) 8W: 23.60 (19.00-30.65) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 67%
( 2%) 7W: 20.00 (16.25-25.45) 100% in, 99% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 17%
( 1%) 6W: 17.42 (13.70-23.85) 100% in, 88% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Archbishop McNicholas (1-2) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(39%) WWWWWWW: 31.65 (26.35-37.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWWWLW: 27.95 (24.05-32.50) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 2%) WWLWWWW: 27.65 (22.20-31.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(41%) WLWWWWW: 27.20 (22.05-32.40) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 2%) WLWWLWW: 23.35 (20.10-27.55) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 66%
( 5%) WLLWWWW: 23.30 (19.00-29.05) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 61%
( 3%) WLWWWLW: 23.15 (20.00-27.75) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 58%
( 1%) WLLWWLW: 19.10 (16.25-22.70) 100% in, 99% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Miami Trace (2-1) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 153.1, #55, D3 #4), appears locked in and likely home, 93% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 149.7, #58, D3 #5), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 5-5), 80% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 145.9, #71, D3 #7), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 90% home (maybe if 6-4), 66% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 129.4, #153, D3 #25), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 125.3