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Rankings
#17 of 107 in Division 3
#6 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #31 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D3 (-20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-0 H #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 129
08/29 W 34-0 H #220 Bellefontaine (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 168
09/05 L 31-14 A #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (69%), perf. rating 116
09/12 W 41-0 A #371 Chaminade Julienne (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 23 (91%), perf. rating 163
09/19 A #66 Archbishop Alter (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 9 (29%)
09/26 H #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/03 A #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/10 H #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/17 H #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.95 (10.15-24.45) 99% in, 95% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), Archbishop Alter (2-2) 13%
Lose: 17.15 ( 3.80-21.25) 92% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
(24%) 8W: 21.30 (18.05-24.45) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 14%
(54%) 7W: 17.65 (14.55-22.25) 99% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 21%
(17%) 6W: 14.55 (11.30-18.45) 91% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Archbishop Alter (2-2) 16%
( 4%) 5W: 11.40 ( 8.10-15.70) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 21%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(24%) WWWWWW: 21.30 (18.05-24.45) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 14%
(50%) LWWWWW: 17.65 (14.55-21.25) 99% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 21%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 17.55 (15.00-20.10) 99% in, 69% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 19%
( 1%) LWLWWW: 15.90 (13.45-18.45) 96% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Archbishop Alter (2-2) 18%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 14.80 (12.35-17.85) 86% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 17%
( 9%) LLWWWW: 14.30 (11.30-17.45) 92% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Archbishop Alter (2-2) 17%
( 3%) LWWWLW: 14.15 (11.80-16.25) 91% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Jackson (3-1) 20%
( 1%) LLWWLW: 10.70 ( 8.80-12.35) 13% in, proj. out (#11-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 26%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 141.6, #96, D3 #17), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye, proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 134.7, #132, D3 #24), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 147.4, #72, D3 #11), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 77% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 132.8, #137, D3 #26), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 143.8, #82, D3 #15), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 64% home (maybe if 6-4), 42% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 143.8