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Rankings
#88 of 104 in Division 3
#25 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #52 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D3 (-270 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 14-7 A #502 Lutheran East (0-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 23 (15%), perf. rating 91
08/28 L 41-6 H #191 Geneva (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 33 (5%), perf. rating 70
09/04 H #452 Rhodes (0-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 6 (37%)
09/11 A #157 South (Willoughby) (2-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 38 (1%)
09/18 H #315 Edgewood (Ashtabula) (2-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/25 H #408 Harvey (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/02 A #102 North (Eastlake) (2-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/09 H #544 Lutheran West (0-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/16 A #131 Chardon (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/23 A #158 Madison (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 38 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.19 ( 1.21- 6.33) 1% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out)
Lose: 1.20 ( 0.50- 3.69) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 5W: 3.48 ( 3.04- 3.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(14%) 4W: 2.73 ( 2.39- 3.21) out, proj. out
(25%) 3W: 2.00 ( 1.70- 2.68) out, proj. out
(35%) 2W: 1.25 ( 1.05- 1.84) out, proj. out
(21%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.50- 0.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLWWLWLL: 3.43 ( 3.04- 3.90) out
( 8%) WLLWLWLL: 2.71 ( 2.40- 3.05) out
(13%) WLLLLWLL: 2.04 ( 1.75- 2.35) out
( 7%) LLLWLWLL: 1.90 ( 1.70- 2.12) out
( 5%) WLLLLLLL: 1.49 ( 1.21- 1.79) out
( 3%) LLLWLLLL: 1.29 ( 1.14- 1.50) out
(25%) LLLLLWLL: 1.20 ( 1.05- 1.45) out
(21%) LLLLLLLL: 0.65 ( 0.50- 0.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 79.2, #499, D3 #88), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (1-0, 81.7, #485, D3 #84), 5% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 70.1, #556, D3 #94), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 65.9