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Rankings
#47 of 105 in Division 4
#13 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #50 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #28 in D4 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 51-43 H #268 Garfield (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 41-21 N Ramsey NJ (2-1) D3
09/05 L 48-27 H #137 Girard (4-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 28 (6%), perf. rating 101
09/12 W 34-0 A #539 Lutheran West (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 19 (87%), perf. rating 126
09/19 H #255 West Geauga (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #118 Geneva (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/03 H #131 Madison (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/10 A #566 Conneaut (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/17 A #500 Jefferson Area (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 H #585 Lakeside (0-4) D3 R9, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.69 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#12 seed in R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
88% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.74 (10.60-25.92) 99% in, 37% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Hubbard (4-0) 15%
Lose: 12.64 ( 7.01-22.41) 82% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 19.46 (16.91-24.10) 100% in, 91% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Salem (2-2) 19%
(32%) 7W: 15.74 (12.22-19.77) 100% in, 30% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 15%
(52%) 6W: 12.69 ( 9.58-17.54) 89% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 15%
( 9%) 5W: 10.71 ( 8.11-15.20) 47% in, proj. out (#9-out), West Branch (3-1) 15%
( 1%) 4W: 8.94 ( 7.10-11.13) 16% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWW: 19.71 (17.01-22.26) 100% in, 90% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Salem (2-2) 20%
( 3%) WLWWWW: 19.10 (16.91-22.21) 100% in, 91% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Salem (2-2) 20%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 17.02 (14.82-19.06) 100% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 18%
( 3%) LLWWWW: 16.41 (14.01-19.21) 100% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Hubbard (4-0) 17%
(27%) WLLWWW: 15.64 (12.22-18.80) 100% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 15%
( 2%) WLLWLW: 13.36 (11.26-15.40) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 17%
(49%) LLLWWW: 12.69 ( 9.58-16.21) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 14%
( 5%) LLLWLW: 10.56 ( 8.11-13.26) 41% in, proj. out (#9-out), West Branch (3-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 106.5, #320, D4 #47), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 97.8, #385, D4 #60), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 95.7, #398, D4 #64), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 93.3, #416, D4 #70), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 80.0, #519, D4 #88), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 68.9