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Rankings
#24 of 107 in Division 3
#9 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #75 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #34 in D3 (-5 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-18 H #255 West Geauga (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 29 (91%), perf. rating 128
08/29 W 56-21 A #527 Howland (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 130
09/05 W 63-0 A #493 Normandy (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 37 (98%), perf. rating 144
09/12 L 49-48 A #81 Hawken (4-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 145
09/19 H #95 Perry (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 2 (45%)
09/26 H #320 Edgewood (Ashtabula) (3-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/03 A #566 Conneaut (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/09 H #585 Lakeside (0-4) D3 R9, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/17 A #131 Madison (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 H #500 Jefferson Area (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 42 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
72% (bubble if 7-3), 37% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.55 (11.65-25.70) 97% in, 66% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), East (Akron) (2-2) 10%
Lose: 15.30 ( 6.80-22.50) 52% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 9W: 22.25 (19.95-25.70) 100% in, 98% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), East (Akron) (2-2) 13%
(38%) 8W: 18.45 (15.45-23.45) 98% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 12%
(31%) 7W: 14.55 (12.05-19.40) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Madison (2-2) 14%
( 3%) 6W: 11.15 ( 8.40-17.30) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWWWWW: 22.25 (19.95-25.70) 100% in, 98% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), East (Akron) (2-2) 13%
(22%) LWWWWW: 18.50 (15.75-22.50) 99% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 12%
(15%) WWWWLW: 18.40 (15.75-21.95) 95% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Madison (2-2) 13%
(28%) LWWWLW: 14.25 (12.05-18.00) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out), Madison (2-2) 16%
( 2%) LLWWLW: 10.60 ( 8.40-13.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Benedictine (4-0) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 137.7, #118, D3 #24), 72% (bubble if 7-3), 37% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye, proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 133.0, #145, D3 #31), 61% (bubble if 7-3), 32% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 131.6, #143, D3 #26), 84% (bubble if 7-3), 60% home (maybe if 8-2), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 130.5, #147, D3 #28), 77% (bubble if 7-3), 51% home (maybe if 8-2), 18% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 136.5, #116, D3 #25), 78% (bubble if 7-3), 53% home (maybe if 8-2), 18% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Last season 132.9