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Rankings
#73 of 104 in Division 3
#24 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #51 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D3 (-415 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 27-22 H #474 Berkshire (0-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 3 (55%), perf. rating 89
08/28 L 52-41 H #315 Edgewood (Ashtabula) (2-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 89
09/04 H #382 Lakewood (2-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 2 (46%)
09/11 A #102 North (Eastlake) (2-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 35 (2%)
09/18 H #544 Lutheran West (0-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/25 A #498 Lakeside (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/02 H #158 Madison (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/09 H #157 South (Willoughby) (2-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/16 A #166 West Geauga (2-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 A #131 Chardon (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 33 (1%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.92 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.77 ( 1.36- 7.44) 4% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out)
Lose: 1.82 ( 0.48- 5.50) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 4.43 ( 4.07- 4.86) 43% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(10%) 5W: 3.57 ( 3.21- 4.04) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(29%) 4W: 2.74 ( 2.44- 3.26) out, proj. out
(34%) 3W: 1.92 ( 1.69- 2.56) out, proj. out
(18%) 2W: 1.22 ( 1.03- 1.68) out, proj. out
( 5%) 1W: 0.62 ( 0.48- 0.76) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLWWLWLL: 3.60 ( 3.25- 3.87) out
( 3%) WLWWWLLL: 3.58 ( 3.33- 3.83) out
(23%) WLWWLLLL: 2.74 ( 2.46- 3.15) out
( 6%) WLWLLLLL: 2.06 ( 1.82- 2.38) out
(25%) LLWWLLLL: 1.88 ( 1.69- 2.13) out
( 3%) LLLWLLLL: 1.27 ( 1.08- 1.48) out
(14%) LLWLLLLL: 1.22 ( 1.03- 1.47) out
( 5%) LLLLLLLL: 0.62 ( 0.48- 0.76) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 93.2, #407, D3 #73), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 104.1, #335, D3 #62), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 102.6, #341, D3 #63), 30% (bubble if 7-3), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 103.5