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Rankings
#28 of 107 in Division 3
#11 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #48 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D3 (-268 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-17 H #182 Brecksville-Broadvw Hts (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 118
08/29 W 47-0 A #539 Lutheran West (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 40 (98%), perf. rating 138
09/05 L 20-19 H #121 Twinsburg (4-0) D2 R5, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 134
09/12 L 41-7 A #5 Highland (Medina) (4-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 38 (1%), perf. rating 136
09/19 H #181 Revere (3-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/26 H #159 Copley (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/03 A #602 Cuyahoga Falls (1-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/10 A #360 Tallmadge (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/17 H #343 Kent Roosevelt (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 A #429 Barberton (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.74 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
51% (likely needs 7-3), 3% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.28 ( 6.39-19.91) 66% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Alliance (3-1) 15%
Lose: 9.77 ( 1.76-15.42) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(51%) 7W: 17.74 (17.03-19.91) 94% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Alliance (3-1) 15%
(32%) 6W: 13.25 (12.49-17.64) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), Alliance (3-1) 18%
(13%) 5W: 9.21 ( 8.56-14.87) out, proj. out
( 3%) 4W: 6.39 ( 5.23-10.79) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(51%) WWWWWW: 17.74 (17.03-19.91) 94% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Alliance (3-1) 15%
( 1%) WWWLWW: 14.92 (13.75-17.09) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out), Alliance (3-1) 17%
( 1%) WWWWLW: 14.46 (13.30-16.58) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Cuyahoga Val. Christian (3-0) 22%
(10%) LWWWWW: 13.25 (12.59-15.42) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Alliance (3-1) 21%
(17%) WLWWWW: 13.15 (12.49-15.32) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Alliance (3-1) 17%
( 1%) WLWLWW: 10.27 ( 9.16-12.45) out
( 9%) LLWWWW: 9.16 ( 8.56-11.18) out
( 1%) LLWLWW: 6.29 ( 5.73- 7.96) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 134.8, #134, D3 #28), 51% (likely needs 7-3), 3% home, proj. out at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 132.5, #147, D3 #32), 45% (likely needs 7-3), 3% home, proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 140.0, #96, D3 #16), 76% (likely needs 7-3), 45% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 139.4, #108, D3 #21), 69% (bubble if 6-4), 42% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 152.2, #52, D3 #9), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 78% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 153.9