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Rankings
#57 of 100 in Division 2
#18 of 25 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #50 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #89 in D2 (-925 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 22-19 H #317 Kent Roosevelt (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 100
08/28 L 23-20 A #290 Bedford (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 8 (66%), perf. rating 108
09/04 H #258 Solon (1-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/10 A #295 Revere (1-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/18 A #189 Aurora (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 14 (19%)
09/25 H #149 Kenston (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/02 H #371 Barberton (1-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/09 A #144 Copley (2-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/16 H #80 Brecksville-Broadvw Hts (1-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/23 A #143 Mayfield (2-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.23 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.95 ( 0.71- 6.94) 25% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Glenville (1-1) 15%
Lose: 0.89 ( 0.00- 6.16) 4% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 5.80 ( 5.56- 6.16) 100% in, 77% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#11), Glenville (1-1) 20%
( 6%) 6W: 4.86 ( 4.62- 5.36) 96% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Glenville (1-1) 16%
( 9%) 5W: 3.94 ( 3.66- 4.58) 49% in, proj. out (#9-out), Glenville (1-1) 15%
(13%) 4W: 3.06 ( 2.76- 3.62) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(18%) 3W: 2.23 ( 2.00- 2.74) out, proj. out
(21%) 2W: 1.46 ( 1.32- 1.96) out, proj. out
(19%) 1W: 0.72 ( 0.61- 1.06) out, proj. out
(10%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWLWLLL: 3.00 ( 2.77- 3.31) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Glenville (1-1) 33%
( 6%) WWLLWLLL: 2.21 ( 2.04- 2.47) out
( 6%) LWLLWLLL: 1.45 ( 1.32- 1.74) out
( 5%) WLLLWLLL: 1.44 ( 1.37- 1.73) out
(12%) LLLLWLLL: 0.72 ( 0.66- 0.90) out
( 3%) WLLLLLLL: 0.71 ( 0.71- 0.96) out
( 2%) LWLLLLLL: 0.67 ( 0.61- 0.90) out
(10%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 112.0, #281, D2 #57), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 119.0, #225, D2 #53), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 129.3, #154, D2 #44), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 135.4