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Rankings
#62 of 104 in Division 3
#20 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #75 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D3 (-43 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 22-19 A #327 Twinsburg (0-3) D2 R5, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 112
08/28 L 34-13 H #128 South (Willoughby) (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 100
09/04 W 29-7 A #516 Ellet (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 112
09/11 A #250 Tallmadge (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 11 (26%)
09/18 H #182 Streetsboro (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 16 (16%)
09/25 H #482 Field (1-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/02 A #674 Springfield (Akron) (0-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/09 H #144 Norton (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/16 A #536 Cuyahoga Falls (2-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/23 H #393 Ravenna (2-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 13 (80%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
30% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.65 ( 5.05-26.65) 70% in, 32% home, 4% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Benedictine (3-0) 8%
Lose: 10.90 ( 1.70-23.65) 16% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Tallmadge (2-1) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 22.40 (19.10-26.65) 100% in, 98% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 34%
(10%) 8W: 18.25 (14.65-25.70) 98% in, 58% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Cuyahoga Val. Christian (1-2) 9%
(22%) 7W: 14.60 (10.90-22.05) 62% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Benedictine (3-0) 9%
(37%) 6W: 11.40 ( 8.40-16.75) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Gilmour Academy (2-1) 11%
(20%) 5W: 8.70 ( 5.95-13.65) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 4W: 6.15 ( 3.75-11.55) out, proj. out
( 1%) 3W: 4.38 ( 1.70- 8.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWW: 22.40 (19.10-26.65) 100% in, 98% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 34%
( 5%) WWWWLWW: 17.75 (14.65-22.05) 98% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Cuyahoga Val. Christian (1-2) 10%
( 5%) LLWWWWW: 15.20 (12.30-19.65) 69% in, 10% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Tallmadge (2-1) 10%
( 7%) LWWWLWW: 14.45 (10.90-20.30) 55% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Gilmour Academy (2-1) 11%
( 9%) WLWWLWW: 14.22 (11.20-18.55) 61% in, 6% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Benedictine (3-0) 9%
(30%) LLWWLWW: 11.30 ( 8.45-16.30) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Tallmadge (2-1) 12%
(14%) LLWWLWL: 8.40 ( 5.95-12.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Gilmour Academy (2-1) 22%
( 1%) LLLWLLL: 4.05 ( 1.70- 6.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 106.9, #314, D3 #62), 30% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 106.4, #317, D3 #65), 32% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 115.7, #244, D3 #47), 65% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 105.4, #314, D3 #58), 31% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 108.4