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Rankings
#24 of 104 in Division 3
#5 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #41 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #14 in D3 (+177 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-20 H #182 Streetsboro (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 135
08/28 W 56-6 H #570 Firestone (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 42 (98%), perf. rating 127
09/04 W 43-6 H #443 Garfield (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 35 (97%), perf. rating 142
09/10 A #193 Kenston (1-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 7 (66%)
09/18 H #210 Revere (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 13 (79%)
09/25 A #346 Barberton (2-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/02 A #135 Brecksville-Broadvw Hts (1-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/09 H #327 Twinsburg (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/16 H #126 Mayfield (3-0) D2 R5, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/23 A #267 Aurora (1-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
21.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 4-6), 87% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.70 ( 8.00-33.10) 99% in, 96% home, 82% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 83%
Lose: 16.60 ( 4.95-30.30) 91% in, 69% home, 38% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 42%
Based on eventual number of wins
(19%) 10W: 30.00 (26.65-33.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(24%) 9W: 25.40 (20.85-31.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(21%) 8W: 21.25 (16.70-28.45) 100% in, 99% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 86%
(16%) 7W: 17.65 (12.90-23.25) 100% in, 95% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#12), bye 36%
(11%) 6W: 14.60 (10.45-20.40) 98% in, 63% home, 6% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Buchtel (1-2) 11%
( 6%) 5W: 11.75 ( 7.35-16.90) 82% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Buchtel (1-2) 11%
( 3%) 4W: 9.55 ( 5.60-13.45) 43% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 12%
( 1%) 3W: 7.65 ( 4.95-10.35) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(19%) WWWWWWW: 30.00 (26.65-33.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 3%) LWWWWWW: 26.08 (22.80-30.30) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 9%) WWWLWWW: 25.75 (22.20-29.25) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 8%) WWWWWLW: 24.50 (20.85-28.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 3%) LWWLWWW: 22.00 (18.45-26.40) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 6%) WWWLWLW: 20.55 (16.75-24.15) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 81%
( 3%) LWWLWLW: 17.25 (13.45-20.95) 100% in, 96% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 31%
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 7.65 ( 4.95-10.35) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out), Buchtel (1-2) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 132.2, #134, D3 #24), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 87% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 131.1, #144, D3 #22), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 64% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 133.2, #132, D3 #17), 96% (bubble if 3-7), 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 55% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 127.6, #164, D3 #28), 77% (bubble if 4-6), 60% home (maybe if 5-5), 37% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Last season 132.8