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Rankings
#48 of 102 in Division 3
#12 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #26 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D3 (-120 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 46-7 H #41 South Range (6-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 97
08/28 L 7-3 A #149 Benedictine (4-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 31 (6%), perf. rating 126
09/04 W 35-6 H #376 Bedford (2-4) D3 R9, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 140
09/11 W 23-21 A #411 Sandusky (0-6) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 98
09/18 W 41-6 H #488 Garfield (0-6) D2 R5, pick: W by 27 (95%), perf. rating 131
09/25 L 14-7 A #234 Elyria Catholic (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 1 (53%), perf. rating 109
10/02 H #93 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (5-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/09 A #153 Lake Catholic (3-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/16 A #151 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (3-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/23 H #212 Holy Name (3-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.52 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#12 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
33% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.00 ( 7.86-20.94) 93% in, 57% home, 8% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Midview (3-3) 13%
Lose: 7.40 ( 3.48-18.20) 28% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 6W: 15.29 (11.97-18.66) 100% in, 96% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Midview (3-3) 16%
(15%) 5W: 11.88 ( 8.62-15.25) 97% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Buchtel (3-3) 17%
(38%) 4W: 8.52 ( 5.72-11.94) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 35%
(42%) 3W: 5.73 ( 3.48- 8.03) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWW: 15.90 (13.50-18.66) 100% in, 97% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Midview (3-3) 21%
( 3%) LWWW: 14.73 (11.97-18.20) 100% in, 94% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 15%
( 5%) LLWW: 11.42 ( 9.13-14.13) 96% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Buchtel (3-3) 17%
( 5%) LWLW: 11.42 ( 9.58-14.18) 96% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Buchtel (3-3) 16%
( 5%) LLWL: 8.58 ( 6.33-11.33) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 30%
( 5%) LWLL: 8.58 ( 6.33-10.87) 36% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 33%
(25%) LLLW: 8.42 ( 5.72-10.87) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 39%
(42%) LLLL: 5.73 ( 3.48- 8.03) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 115.7, #249, D3 #48), 33% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 5 (3-2, 117.8, #233, D3 #42), 57% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (likely needs 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (2-2, 115.5, #255, D3 #44), 57% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 123.0, #197, D3 #33), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 112.5, #275, D3 #52), 41% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 102.2, #353, D3 #65), 25% (bubble if 4-6), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 114.8, #246, D3 #48), 47% (bubble if 4-6), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 108.7