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Rankings
#13 of 105 in Division 4
#5 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #4 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #10 in D4 (+320 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 50-8 H #387 Struthers (0-4) D4 R13, pick: L by 11 (31%), perf. rating 158
08/29 W 38-12 A #255 West Geauga (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 156
09/05 W 48-45 A #143 Kenston (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 140
09/12 L 28-14 H #91 Benedictine (4-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 16 (83%), perf. rating 120
09/19 A #288 Bedford (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/26 H #195 Holy Name (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/03 H #193 Padua Franciscan (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/10 A #70 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/17 A #265 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/25 A #73 Lake Catholic (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
19.41 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#7 seed in R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 4-6), 81% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.06 ( 8.97-32.17) 99% in, 85% home, 32% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 32%
Lose: 14.57 ( 6.95-26.83) 85% in, 36% home, 4% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Hubbard (4-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 9W: 27.83 (23.94-32.17) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(26%) 8W: 23.44 (17.94-29.40) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 70%
(35%) 7W: 19.41 (14.15-24.61) 100% in, 94% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#11), Edgewood (Ashtabula) (3-1) 18%
(19%) 6W: 16.51 (11.79-22.90) 99% in, 62% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hubbard (4-0) 20%
( 8%) 5W: 13.89 ( 9.06-18.46) 97% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Hubbard (4-0) 15%
( 3%) 4W: 11.39 ( 7.96-15.58) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), West Branch (3-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWW: 27.83 (23.94-32.17) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(12%) WWWWWL: 23.44 (18.64-27.23) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 58%
(13%) WWWLWW: 23.34 (17.94-27.84) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 78%
(27%) WWWLWL: 19.10 (14.15-23.50) 100% in, 93% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Edgewood (Ashtabula) (3-1) 19%
( 6%) WWLLWL: 17.04 (12.95-21.23) 100% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Hubbard (4-0) 21%
( 4%) WWWLLL: 16.89 (11.84-20.62) 100% in, 67% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Hubbard (4-0) 20%
( 5%) WLWLWL: 15.57 (11.79-18.96) 99% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Hubbard (4-0) 21%
( 1%) WLLLLL: 11.85 ( 8.97-15.58) 78% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Perry (2-2) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 137.3, #120, D4 #13), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 81% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 147.8, #72, D4 #7), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 5-5), 75% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 147.5, #70, D4 #7), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 52% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 150.8, #60, D4 #5), 96% (bubble if 4-6), 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 64% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 125.8, #175, D4 #18), 57% (bubble if 4-6), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 127.8