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Rankings
#97 of 107 in Division 3
#24 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #103 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #103 in D3 (-920 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 32-28 A #536 Eastmoor Academy (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 70
08/29 L 26-16 H #497 Independence (Cbus) (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 63
09/05 L 42-6 H #194 Maple Heights (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 43 (1%), perf. rating 68
09/12 L 28-25 A #604 Whetstone (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 57
09/19 H #341 Linden McKinley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/25 A #683 Mifflin (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/03 A #351 East (Columbus) (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/09 H #703 Dayton Stivers (0-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/17 H #564 Centennial (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 H #305 Northland (2-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.31 Harbin points (divisor 96)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.40 ( 4.69-18.04) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 3.32 ( 0.40-14.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 4W: 8.40 ( 6.79-13.35) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(46%) 3W: 4.31 ( 3.27- 8.27) out, proj. out
(45%) 2W: 1.36 ( 1.00- 5.85) out, proj. out
( 3%) 1W: 0.76 ( 0.40- 1.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWL: 8.56 ( 7.15-10.43) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Buckeye Valley (4-0) 40%
( 2%) LWWWWL: 8.35 ( 6.89-10.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 50%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 8.24 ( 6.79-10.48) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Athens (4-0) 33%
(44%) LWLWWL: 4.31 ( 3.27- 5.92) out
(44%) LWLWLL: 1.36 ( 1.00- 3.19) out
( 2%) LLLWLL: 0.76 ( 0.40- 1.49) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 67.9, #572, D3 #97), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 75.0, #532, D3 #93), 5% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 79.4, #508, D3 #91), 17% (likely needs 6-4), 5% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 84.3, #475, D3 #87), 33% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 83.7, #496, D3 #89), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 81.1