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Rankings
#87 of 107 in Division 3
#20 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #90 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #76 in D3 (-415 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-20 H #531 Meadowdale (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 85
08/29 W 26-16 A #572 Beechcroft (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 85
09/05 L 46-6 H #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 62
09/11 L 21-0 A #363 Marion-Franklin (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 72
09/19 H #613 South (Columbus) (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/26 A #482 Briggs (2-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/03 H #158 Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/10 H #643 West (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/17 A #536 Eastmoor Academy (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/23 A #189 Walnut Ridge (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
20% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.45 ( 3.60-18.95) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
Lose: 6.10 ( 2.40-16.50) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 16.35 (13.75-18.55) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 18%
(27%) 6W: 12.55 (10.00-16.50) 61% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 17%
(39%) 5W: 9.45 ( 6.80-14.25) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Granville (3-1) 21%
(26%) 4W: 6.90 ( 4.30-11.25) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 3W: 5.55 ( 2.40- 8.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(25%) WWLWWL: 12.55 (10.00-15.30) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
(11%) WWLWLL: 9.80 ( 7.50-12.80) 7% in, proj. out (#11-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 18%
(26%) WLLWWL: 9.10 ( 6.80-11.70) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Granville (3-1) 23%
( 2%) LLLWWL: 7.20 ( 4.65- 9.45) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Granville (3-1) 33%
(22%) WLLWLL: 6.90 ( 4.30- 9.10) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 5.85 ( 3.60- 8.00) out
( 4%) LLLWLL: 5.20 ( 2.40- 6.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 79.6, #497, D3 #87), 20% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 84.5, #466, D3 #84), 57% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 92.8, #418, D3 #78), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 92.1, #423, D3 #80), 57% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 88.8, #458, D3 #83), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 84.3