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Rankings
#35 of 104 in Division 3
#9 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #88 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #19 in D3 (+124 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 14-0 H #299 Walnut Ridge (0-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 128
08/28 W 25-14 A #295 Whitehall-Yearling (1-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 128
09/04 L 35-14 H #31 DeSales (Columbus) (3-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 34 (3%), perf. rating 130
09/11 A #671 Mifflin (0-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/18 H #408 Northland (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/25 H #662 Whetstone (0-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/01 A #502 Beechcroft (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/09 H #631 Centennial (0-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/16 A #615 Ponitz Tech (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/23 A #285 Linden McKinley (3-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
25.35 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#2 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 94% home (maybe if 7-3), 62% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.69 ( 8.80-28.48) 99% in, 94% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 62%
Lose: 19.25 ( 8.56-25.71) 96% in, 73% home, 30% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 31%
Based on eventual number of wins
(64%) 9W: 25.35 (20.30-28.48) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 91%
(29%) 8W: 20.10 (14.95-26.22) 100% in, 91% home, 10% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#11), Athens (2-1) 16%
( 6%) 7W: 16.42 (11.42-23.80) 98% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Athens (2-1) 20%
( 1%) 6W: 13.47 ( 8.80-20.52) 84% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(64%) WWWWWWW: 25.35 (20.30-28.48) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 91%
( 1%) WWWLWWW: 21.97 (19.25-25.26) 100% in, 99% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 41%
( 2%) WLWWWWW: 20.71 (16.17-24.04) 100% in, 98% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 23%
(24%) WWWWWWL: 19.80 (14.95-22.93) 100% in, 90% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Athens (2-1) 18%
( 1%) WWWWWLL: 18.59 (15.51-20.21) 100% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Athens (2-1) 26%
( 1%) WWWLWWL: 16.37 (12.43-18.65) 99% in, 41% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Athens (2-1) 15%
( 3%) WLWWWWL: 15.46 (11.42-18.39) 97% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Athens (2-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 122.8, #199, D3 #35), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 7-3), 62% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 121.3, #212, D3 #36), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 7-3), 70% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 122.2, #200, D3 #36), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 67% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 109.2, #288, D3 #54), 72% (bubble if 6-4), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 114.2