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Rankings
#56 of 105 in Division 4
#14 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #97 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #50 in D4 (-100 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 33-30 H #238 Chaney (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 119
08/29 L 14-6 H #328 Whitehall-Yearling (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 91
09/04 W 31-6 A #507 Scott (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 118
09/12 W 81-0 H #683 Mifflin (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 91
09/18 A #305 Northland (2-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/26 A #604 Whetstone (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/03 H #572 Beechcroft (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/10 A #564 Centennial (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/16 H #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/24 H #341 Linden McKinley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.59 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#6 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 6-4), 64% home (likely needs 8-2), 19% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.52 (11.99-25.50) 99% in, 96% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 55%
Lose: 14.66 ( 5.63-22.03) 92% in, 50% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Circleville (4-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(20%) 9W: 23.13 (20.25-25.50) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 82%
(39%) 8W: 18.59 (15.16-23.14) 100% in, 96% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Circleville (4-0) 12%
(35%) 7W: 14.05 (10.67-19.35) 96% in, 20% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 13%
( 6%) 6W: 11.30 ( 8.35-16.73) 47% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(20%) WWWWWW: 23.13 (20.25-25.50) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 82%
(29%) LWWWWW: 18.59 (15.16-22.03) 100% in, 97% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Circleville (4-0) 12%
( 9%) WWWWWL: 18.09 (15.21-21.42) 100% in, 94% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Johnstown (2-2) 13%
(32%) LWWWWL: 14.00 (10.67-16.88) 95% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 13%
( 1%) LWLWWL: 11.94 ( 9.11-14.36) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 18%
( 1%) LLWWWL: 11.68 ( 9.41-14.87) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 13%
( 3%) LWWLWL: 10.62 ( 8.35-13.40) 24% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jonathan Alder (4-0) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 102.8, #351, D4 #56), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 64% home (likely needs 8-2), 19% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 105.7, #332, D4 #52), 93% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 98.3, #381, D4 #60), 83% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 8-2), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 105.5, #316, D4 #44), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home (maybe if 8-2), 37% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 94.8, #405, D4 #67), 69% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 18% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Last season 96.2