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Rankings
#76 of 100 in Division 2
#21 of 25 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #91 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D2 (-276 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 36-6 A #256 Columbus Academy (1-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 72
08/28 W 18-14 H #446 Aiken (1-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 8 (66%), perf. rating 91
09/03 W 12-8 H #378 Africentric Early Coll. (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 10 (28%), perf. rating 102
09/11 H #357 Whitehall-Yearling (0-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/18 A #212 East (Columbus) (2-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 26 (5%)
09/25 A #605 Centennial (0-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/02 H #668 Mifflin (0-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/09 A #650 Whetstone (0-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/16 H #323 Linden McKinley (2-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 H #467 Beechcroft (1-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
4.26 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.18 ( 2.81- 7.38) 88% in, 35% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Walnut Ridge (0-2) 11%
Lose: 4.24 ( 1.61- 6.48) 42% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Ashland (2-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 7.01 ( 6.78- 7.38) 100% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 28%
(15%) 8W: 6.01 ( 5.54- 6.48) 100% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Walnut Ridge (0-2) 13%
(28%) 7W: 5.12 ( 4.44- 5.67) 94% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Walnut Ridge (0-2) 12%
(33%) 6W: 4.26 ( 3.78- 4.78) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ashland (2-0) 15%
(19%) 5W: 3.48 ( 3.13- 3.98) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 4W: 2.80 ( 2.52- 3.08) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWW: 7.01 ( 6.78- 7.38) 100% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 28%
(12%) WLWWWWW: 6.00 ( 5.54- 6.44) 100% in, 71% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Walnut Ridge (0-2) 13%
(10%) LLWWWWW: 5.24 ( 4.88- 5.67) 97% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Walnut Ridge (0-2) 16%
(14%) WLWWWLW: 5.01 ( 4.45- 5.43) 92% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Massillon Washington (2-0) 14%
(25%) LLWWWLW: 4.25 ( 3.81- 4.58) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ashland (2-0) 15%
( 4%) WLWWWLL: 4.18 ( 3.78- 4.51) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ashland (2-0) 20%
(15%) LLWWWLL: 3.44 ( 3.13- 3.76) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Massillon Washington (2-0) 29%
( 2%) LLLWWLL: 2.81 ( 2.52- 3.04) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 89.9, #429, D2 #77), 26% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 94.0, #409, D2 #75), 33% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 100.1, #368, D2 #70), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 102.9