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Rankings
#64 of 108 in Division 6
#13 of 28 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #41 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D6 (-308 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-20 A #254 Hillsdale (5-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 96
08/28 L 9-7 A #515 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 76
09/04 L 42-12 H #205 Smithville (6-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 75
09/11 W 41-28 H #605 Clearview (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 76
09/18 L 49-14 A #204 Columbia (6-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 30 (3%), perf. rating 72
09/25 L 48-7 H #217 Keystone (5-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 28 (4%), perf. rating 57
10/02 H #379 Firelands (4-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/09 A #512 Brookside (0-6) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/16 A #630 Wellington (1-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/23 A #631 South Central (3-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.91 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.61 ( 4.47- 8.98) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Lose: 3.85 ( 0.91- 6.24) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 5W: 7.96 ( 7.61- 8.98) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(42%) 4W: 4.91 ( 4.56- 7.72) out, proj. out
(42%) 3W: 3.49 ( 3.08- 6.30) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 2.18 ( 1.67- 4.47) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWW: 7.96 ( 7.61- 8.98) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Columbia (6-0) 100%
( 4%) WLWW: 6.55 ( 6.19- 7.72) out
(37%) LWWW: 4.91 ( 4.56- 6.24) out
( 2%) LWLW: 4.16 ( 3.39- 4.97) out
(38%) LLWW: 3.49 ( 3.14- 4.97) out
( 2%) LWWL: 3.08 ( 3.08- 3.59) out
( 3%) LLLW: 2.74 ( 2.38- 3.71) out
( 3%) LLWL: 1.67 ( 1.67- 2.69) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (1-5, 79.5, #500, D6 #64), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (1-4, 82.0, #485, D6 #63), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (1-3, 84.5, #470, D6 #60), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 89.9, #433, D6 #52), 6% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 90.8, #420, D6 #49), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 95.3, #399, D6 #44), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 91.8, #430, D6 #49), 51% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 94.9