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Rankings
#40 of 107 in Division 6
#10 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #63 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D6 (-110 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-14 H #243 Hillsdale (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 23 (15%), perf. rating 73
08/29 W 37-7 H #624 Northwestern (W. Salem) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 98
09/05 L 14-8 A #266 Smithville (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 13 (23%), perf. rating 106
09/12 W 22-7 A #521 Clearview (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 101
09/19 H #296 Columbia (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 12 (23%)
09/26 A #418 Keystone (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 A #496 Firelands (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/10 H #632 Brookside (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/17 H #597 Wellington (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/24 A #662 Oberlin (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 38 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
9.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
62% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.50 ( 8.15-18.20) 98% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 15%
Lose: 9.75 ( 2.65-14.00) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), United (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(14%) 8W: 16.75 (16.00-18.20) 100% in, 94% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 17%
(35%) 7W: 12.60 (11.75-16.35) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Dalton (3-1) 14%
(34%) 6W: 9.55 ( 8.55-13.65) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), United (3-1) 27%
(14%) 5W: 7.30 ( 5.80-10.45) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 4W: 5.30 ( 3.95- 8.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(14%) WWWWWW: 16.75 (16.00-18.20) 100% in, 94% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 17%
( 1%) WWLWWW: 14.35 (12.85-16.25) 100% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Columbia (4-0) 18%
( 5%) WLWWWW: 13.50 (12.50-15.30) 99% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Columbia (4-0) 18%
(28%) LWWWWW: 12.40 (11.75-14.00) 98% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Dalton (3-1) 15%
( 5%) LWLWWW: 10.05 ( 9.10-11.90) 49% in, proj. out (#9-out), United (3-1) 25%
(26%) LLWWWW: 9.35 ( 8.70-11.30) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), United (3-1) 29%
(11%) LLLWWW: 7.25 ( 6.40- 9.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), United (3-1) 47%
( 1%) LLLWLW: 5.00 ( 3.95- 7.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 95.6, #399, D6 #40), 62% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 90.0, #426, D6 #42), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 87.9, #447, D6 #47), 40% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 83.9, #481, D6 #54), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 88.3, #464, D6 #48), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 84.5