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Rankings
#88 of 101 in Division 4
#23 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #45 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D4 (-557 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 64-42 A #303 University School (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 36 (5%), perf. rating 77
08/28 L 55-20 A #161 Woodridge (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 39 (3%), perf. rating 78
09/04 L 58-48 H #358 Margaretta (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 32 (4%), perf. rating 85
09/11 H #357 Firelands (2-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 26 (6%)
09/18 A #235 Keystone (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 36 (1%)
09/25 A #190 Columbia (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/02 H #582 Clearview (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/09 H #433 Black River (0-3) D6 R21, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/16 A #270 W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/23 H #650 Wellington (0-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.67 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.72 ( 2.03-18.66) 11% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Clyde (1-2) 13%
Lose: 1.67 ( 0.00-12.30) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 6.75 ( 5.47-10.63) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bellevue (2-1) 17%
(19%) 3W: 3.34 ( 2.52- 8.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(50%) 2W: 1.67 ( 1.21- 5.34) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(25%) 1W: 0.76 ( 0.40- 4.38) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLLWWWW: 7.21 ( 6.39- 8.23) 19% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bellevue (2-1) 29%
( 3%) WLLWLLW: 4.31 ( 3.85- 5.53) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellevue (2-1) 100%
(13%) LLLWWLW: 3.34 ( 2.52- 5.08) out
( 3%) LLLLWLW: 2.43 ( 1.21- 3.45) out
(45%) LLLWLLW: 1.67 ( 1.31- 3.14) out
( 3%) LLLWLLL: 0.91 ( 0.50- 1.83) out
(22%) LLLLLLW: 0.76 ( 0.40- 1.78) out
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 71.7, #551, D4 #88), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 64.2, #588, D4 #92), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 59.4, #613, D4 #96), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 55.5, #621, D4 #95), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 53.9