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Region 14 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#101 of 105 in Division 4
#25 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #94 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #102 in D4 (-842 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-0 H #407 University School (2-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 30
08/29 L 28-0 H #370 Woodridge (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 56
09/05 L 48-7 A #260 Margaretta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 41 (1%), perf. rating 56
09/12 L 40-20 A #496 Firelands (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 27 (5%), perf. rating 52
09/19 H #418 Keystone (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 30 (3%)
09/26 H #296 Columbia (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/03 A #521 Clearview (0-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/10 A #399 Black River (2-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/17 H #662 Oberlin (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/24 A #597 Wellington (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.80 ( 1.65-12.20) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Lose: 1.30 ( 0.00-12.95) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 3W: 4.75 ( 3.85- 8.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(28%) 2W: 2.85 ( 2.15- 6.10) out, proj. out
(51%) 1W: 1.30 ( 0.50- 3.90) out, proj. out
(15%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LLWLWW: 4.25 ( 4.15- 5.75) out
( 1%) WLLLWL: 3.90 ( 2.55- 5.80) out
(21%) LLLLWW: 2.85 ( 2.85- 4.70) out
( 4%) LLWLWL: 2.60 ( 2.15- 4.00) out
( 3%) LLLLLW: 1.55 ( 1.20- 2.95) out
(47%) LLLLWL: 1.30 ( 1.30- 2.75) out
(15%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 54.0, #632, D4 #101), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 54.5, #623, D4 #100), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 54.2, #623, D4 #100), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 58.6, #613, D4 #98), 2% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 63.2, #594, D4 #97), 5% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 62.2