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Rankings
#89 of 106 in Division 5
#22 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #86 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #68 in D5 (-263 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 45-6 H #350 W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 17 (22%), perf. rating 43
08/29 W 28-12 H #660 Mapleton (1-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 63
09/05 W 22-6 A #671 Plymouth (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 62
09/12 L 35-6 A #296 Columbia (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 37 (1%), perf. rating 68
09/19 H #521 Clearview (0-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/26 A #662 Oberlin (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/03 H #418 Keystone (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/10 A #496 Firelands (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/17 A #399 Black River (2-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/24 H #632 Brookside (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.25 ( 2.00-14.55) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 26%
Lose: 4.35 ( 1.45-11.95) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 10.65 ( 9.55-12.85) 56% in, proj. #12 (#9-out)
( 6%) 6W: 8.15 ( 6.80-10.65) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(20%) 5W: 6.20 ( 4.95- 9.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(42%) 4W: 4.60 ( 3.30- 7.90) out, proj. out
(25%) 3W: 3.55 ( 1.95- 6.15) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 2.25 ( 1.45- 3.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWLLW: 8.53 ( 7.20-10.45) 15% in, proj. out (#11-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 31%
( 3%) WWLWLW: 7.90 ( 6.80- 9.30) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Fredericktown (4-0) 25%
(10%) WWLLLW: 6.10 ( 4.95- 7.60) out
( 5%) LWLWLW: 6.10 ( 4.95- 8.15) out
(36%) LWLLLW: 4.50 ( 3.60- 6.35) out
(18%) LWLLLL: 3.60 ( 2.75- 5.30) out
( 6%) LLLLLW: 3.05 ( 1.95- 4.35) out
( 6%) LLLLLL: 2.25 ( 1.45- 3.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 61.2, #597, D5 #89), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 61.0, #601, D5 #91), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 55.7, #616, D5 #94), 3% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 54.8, #620, D5 #94), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 66.2, #580, D5 #85), 18% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 65.8