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Rankings
#23 of 105 in Division 5
#8 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #48 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D5 (+533 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 36-21 H #284 Norwayne (1-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 132
08/28 W 12-10 A #281 Cloverleaf (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 118
09/04 W 40-29 H #269 Buckeye (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 128
09/18 H #508 Brookside (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/25 A #470 Black River (1-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/02 H #642 Wellington (0-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/09 A #234 Columbia (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/16 A #395 Firelands (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/23 H #588 Clearview (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 41 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-1 record
21.36 Harbin points (divisor 89)
#2 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-3), 76% bye (maybe if 8-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.31 (11.49-29.16) 99% in, 98% home, 77% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 77%
Lose: 19.06 (11.88-26.13) 99% in, 80% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 37%
Based on eventual number of wins
(40%) 9W: 26.07 (21.41-29.16) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(45%) 8W: 21.36 (17.09-27.31) 100% in, 99% home, 76% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 76%
(13%) 7W: 17.66 (13.78-23.22) 99% in, 87% home, 13% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 13%
( 2%) 6W: 15.47 (12.27-19.35) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), North Union (3-1) 10%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(40%) WWWWWW: 26.07 (21.41-29.16) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 1%) WLWWWW: 23.38 (20.18-26.08) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 21.81 (18.38-25.01) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 81%
(39%) WWWLWW: 21.30 (17.09-25.06) 100% in, 99% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 75%
( 1%) LWWLWW: 19.34 (16.31-22.49) 100% in, 96% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 33%
( 2%) WLWLWW: 18.72 (15.58-22.15) 100% in, 95% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 20%
( 9%) WWWLLW: 17.26 (13.78-20.69) 99% in, 83% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Galion (2-2) 13%
( 1%) WLWLLW: 15.08 (13.05-18.17) 98% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Margaretta (3-1) 11%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-0, 118.8, #228, D5 #23), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-3), 76% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #2 at 8-1
Week 3 (3-0, 118.2, #235, D5 #22), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 7-3), 62% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 113.4, #268, D5 #30), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home (maybe if 8-2), 30% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 111.9, #276, D5 #31), 72% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 8-2), 23% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 95.3, #406, D5 #54), 28% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 89.9