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Rankings
#6 of 105 in Division 5
#3 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #20 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D5 (+540 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-28 A #232 Benjamin Logan (1-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 141
08/28 W 42-7 A #342 Edison (Milan) (0-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 157
09/04 H #600 Bowsher (0-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/11 H #312 Allen East (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 30 (96%)
09/18 A #414 Jefferson (2-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/25 H #601 Spencerville (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/02 H #61 Lima Central Catholic (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/09 A #403 Crestview (Convoy) (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/16 A #235 Fort Loramie (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/23 H #68 Columbus Grove (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
5.44 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home (maybe if 8-2), 26% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.30 ( 2.86- 6.63) 95% in, 67% home, 26% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
(19%) 10W: 6.18 ( 5.82- 6.63) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 90%
(37%) 9W: 5.44 ( 4.97- 6.10) 100% in, 97% home, 25% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 25%
(32%) 8W: 4.73 ( 4.32- 5.34) 98% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Margaretta (1-1) 10%
(10%) 7W: 4.14 ( 3.70- 4.73) 71% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (2-0) 15%
( 2%) 6W: 3.56 ( 3.13- 3.96) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(19%) WWWWWWWW: 6.17 ( 5.82- 6.63) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 90%
(16%) WWWWWWWL: 5.43 ( 4.97- 5.89) 100% in, 97% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 26%
(19%) WWWWLWWW: 5.42 ( 5.02- 5.83) 100% in, 96% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 23%
( 2%) WWWWWWLL: 4.83 ( 4.60- 5.20) 100% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Archbold (2-0) 11%
(25%) WWWWLWWL: 4.71 ( 4.32- 5.19) 98% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Margaretta (1-1) 10%
( 6%) WWWWLWLL: 4.13 ( 3.79- 4.54) 72% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (2-0) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 141.1, #88, D5 #6), 94% (bubble if 6-4), 68% home (maybe if 8-2), 30% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 130.4, #150, D5 #12), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 49% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 130.8, #145, D5 #12), 71% (bubble if 7-3), 42% home (maybe if 8-2), 12% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Last season 127.3