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Rankings
#15 of 106 in Division 5
#6 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #41 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #26 in D5 (+55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 38-7 A #46 Archbold (7-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 110
08/28 W 56-7 H #553 Bowsher (2-5) D2 R6, pick: W by 37 (97%), perf. rating 131
09/04 W 48-20 H #449 Huron (0-7) D6 R22, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 127
09/11 L 35-14 H #214 Otsego (4-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 87
09/18 W 56-17 A #373 Maumee (4-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 2 (44%), perf. rating 158
09/25 W 42-27 A #369 Oak Harbor (3-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 20 (90%), perf. rating 123
10/02 W 55-13 H #419 Rossford (3-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 28 (96%), perf. rating 153
10/09 A #228 Eastwood (6-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/16 A #589 Fostoria (0-7) D4 R14, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/23 H #407 Lake (Millbury) (4-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 62% home (likely needs 8-2), 7% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.70 (14.65-20.85) 100% in, 98% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Port Clinton (6-1) 20%
Lose: 14.30 (10.20-16.80) 97% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Vermilion (6-1) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
(57%) 8W: 18.75 (17.80-20.85) 100% in, 99% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Port Clinton (6-1) 20%
(40%) 7W: 14.30 (13.50-19.65) 99% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Vermilion (6-1) 23%
( 2%) 6W: 11.90 (10.70-16.30) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Margaretta (6-1) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(57%) WWW: 18.75 (17.80-20.85) 100% in, 99% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Port Clinton (6-1) 20%
( 1%) WWL: 16.23 (14.65-18.45) 100% in, 58% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Vermilion (6-1) 27%
(38%) LWW: 14.30 (13.50-16.80) 99% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Vermilion (6-1) 23%
( 2%) LWL: 11.80 (10.70-13.45) 50% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Archbold (7-0) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 124.6, #188, D5 #15), likely in, 62% home (likely needs 8-2), 7% bye, proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 6 (4-2, 123.7, #193, D5 #19), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home (likely needs 8-2), 4% bye, proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 5 (3-2, 126.0, #180, D5 #15), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (likely needs 8-2), 4% bye, proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 4 (2-2, 111.2, #290, D5 #33), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 120.6, #217, D5 #18), 77% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home (likely needs 8-2), 25% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 116.9, #238, D5 #24), 55% (bubble if 7-3), 29% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 109.9, #286, D5 #32), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 123.4, #189, D5 #18), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Last season 129.7