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Rankings
#29 of 108 in Division 6
#8 of 28 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #35 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D6 (+65 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 14-7 H #231 Hubbard (3-3) D4 R13, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 127
08/28 W 35-18 A #393 Springfield (New Midd.) (3-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 123
09/04 L 7-6 A #334 Toronto (6-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 105
09/11 W 40-7 A #624 Champion (2-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 103
09/18 L 28-8 H #184 Liberty (6-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 17 (14%), perf. rating 93
09/25 W 34-6 A #463 Crestview (Columbiana) (1-5) D5 R17, pick: W by 13 (80%), perf. rating 129
10/02 H #548 LaBrae (4-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/09 A #546 Southeast (2-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/16 A #612 Newton Falls (2-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/23 H #188 Garfield (6-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 13 (20%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 43% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.50 (10.70-19.95) 99% in, 44% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), United (4-1) 18%
Lose: 12.10 ( 9.50-16.75) 86% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Hillsdale (5-1) 27%
Based on eventual number of wins
(20%) 8W: 18.25 (16.65-19.95) 100% in, 99% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Grand Valley (4-2) 26%
(75%) 7W: 14.45 (13.15-17.90) 99% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), United (4-1) 22%
( 5%) 6W: 12.38 (10.85-14.25) 95% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Hillsdale (5-1) 28%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(20%) WWWW: 18.25 (16.65-19.95) 100% in, 99% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Grand Valley (4-2) 26%
(74%) WWWL: 14.45 (13.15-16.20) 99% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), United (4-1) 23%
( 3%) WLWL: 12.40 (11.40-13.75) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Hillsdale (5-1) 30%
( 2%) LWWL: 12.05 (10.85-13.30) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Hillsdale (5-1) 29%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (4-2, 109.5, #297, D6 #29), likely in, 43% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 103.5, #343, D6 #34), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 105.1, #326, D6 #32), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 106.1, #323, D6 #32), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 104.1, #334, D6 #32), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 69% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 95.6, #396, D6 #42), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 80.9, #491, D6 #61), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 86.2