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Rankings
#32 of 107 in Division 6
#8 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #34 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D6 (+94 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 14-7 H #321 Hubbard (1-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 115
08/28 W 35-18 A #413 Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 120
09/04 L 7-6 A #318 Toronto (3-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 107
09/11 A #638 Champion (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/18 H #194 Liberty (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 15 (17%)
09/25 A #392 Crestview (Columbiana) (1-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/02 H #492 LaBrae (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/09 A #590 Southeast (0-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/16 A #612 Newton Falls (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/23 H #230 Garfield (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
92% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.30 ( 4.90-24.50) 93% in, 45% home, 9% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), United (2-1) 15%
Lose: 9.80 ( 5.15-18.80) 52% in, 11% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Hillsdale (3-0) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 22.30 (19.85-24.50) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 86%
(23%) 8W: 18.05 (15.25-22.45) 100% in, 98% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Columbiana (3-0) 18%
(38%) 7W: 14.25 (11.15-20.40) 99% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Columbiana (3-0) 19%
(24%) 6W: 11.55 ( 9.05-16.35) 88% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), United (2-1) 25%
( 6%) 5W: 9.45 ( 6.15-12.70) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), United (2-1) 28%
( 1%) 4W: 7.70 ( 5.15-10.00) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWWW: 22.30 (19.85-24.50) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 86%
( 7%) WWWWWWL: 18.15 (15.50-20.35) 100% in, 99% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Columbiana (3-0) 19%
(15%) WLWWWWW: 17.85 (15.25-20.55) 100% in, 98% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Columbiana (3-0) 18%
( 2%) WWLWWWL: 15.50 (13.65-17.50) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Columbiana (3-0) 22%
( 4%) WLLWWWW: 15.20 (12.60-17.75) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Columbiana (3-0) 20%
(30%) WLWWWWL: 14.05 (11.15-16.75) 99% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Columbiana (3-0) 18%
(19%) WLLWWWL: 11.50 ( 9.05-14.55) 89% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), United (2-1) 25%
( 4%) WLLLWWL: 9.10 ( 6.15-11.35) 23% in, proj. out (#9-out), United (2-1) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 106.1, #323, D6 #32), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 104.1, #334, D6 #32), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 69% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 95.6, #396, D6 #42), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 80.9, #491, D6 #61), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 86.2