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Rankings
#26 of 105 in Division 4
#9 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #58 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #25 in D4 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-0 A #457 Brookfield (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 149
08/29 W 28-21 A Wilmington PA (3-1) D6
09/05 W 37-14 H #407 University School (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 18 (84%), perf. rating 126
09/12 W 51-7 A #546 Niles McKinley (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 137
09/19 H #126 Poland Seminary (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 12 (23%)
09/26 A #387 Struthers (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/03 H #527 Howland (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/10 H #378 Lakeview (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/17 H #137 Girard (4-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 A #98 South Range (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
96% (bubble if 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.15 (11.75-27.95) 99% in, 81% home, 21% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 21%
Lose: 13.95 ( 7.80-23.65) 95% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 25.05 (23.20-27.95) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 93%
(13%) 9W: 21.15 (18.35-25.10) 100% in, 99% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), bye 20%
(30%) 8W: 17.25 (14.40-22.40) 100% in, 64% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Salem (2-2) 16%
(42%) 7W: 13.65 (10.80-18.45) 98% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) 15%
(10%) 6W: 11.55 ( 8.75-15.30) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 14%
( 2%) 5W: 9.95 ( 7.80-13.70) 34% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 25.05 (23.20-27.95) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 93%
( 7%) WWWWWL: 21.25 (18.45-24.35) 100% in, 99% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 20%
(16%) LWWWWL: 17.35 (14.50-21.50) 100% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Salem (2-2) 16%
( 8%) WWWWLL: 17.20 (14.95-20.10) 100% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Salem (2-2) 16%
( 5%) LWWWLW: 16.85 (14.40-20.20) 100% in, 56% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) 15%
(39%) LWWWLL: 13.53 (10.80-17.50) 98% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) 15%
( 5%) LWWLLL: 11.00 ( 8.75-14.45) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Streetsboro (3-1) 16%
( 1%) LLWLLL: 9.95 ( 7.80-12.05) 33% in, proj. out (#11-out), Streetsboro (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 122.7, #201, D4 #26), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 116.6, #243, D4 #38), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 111.8, #281, D4 #41), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 110.5, #289, D4 #40), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 103.4, #329, D4 #52), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 103.7