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Rankings
#60 of 106 in Division 5
#17 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #57 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #82 in D5 (-418 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-14 A #316 Beaver Local (4-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 78
08/28 W 34-14 H #447 Lakeview (2-5) D5 R17, pick: W by 17 (80%), perf. rating 115
09/04 L 31-14 H #261 United (5-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 87
09/11 L 37-7 H #241 Liberty (6-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 70
09/18 L 27-21 A #548 Southeast (3-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 28 (96%), perf. rating 64
09/25 L 34-6 H #330 Brookfield (5-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 13 (20%), perf. rating 61
10/02 W 49-14 A #619 Newton Falls (2-5) D6 R21, pick: W by 25 (95%), perf. rating 108
10/09 A #620 Champion (2-5) D6 R21, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/16 H #133 Garfield (7-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/23 A #519 LaBrae (4-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 6 (65%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.75 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.30 ( 4.33-11.44) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 3.48 ( 2.57- 9.58) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(64%) 4W: 6.75 ( 6.30- 9.58) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(33%) 3W: 4.33 ( 4.33- 7.26) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 2.57 ( 2.57- 3.98) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(64%) WLW: 6.75 ( 6.30- 8.67) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Conneaut (6-1) 50%
( 2%) LLW: 4.99 ( 4.53- 6.45) out
(31%) WLL: 4.33 ( 4.33- 5.85) out
( 2%) LLL: 2.57 ( 2.57- 3.98) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 85.4, #461, D5 #60), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 6 (1-5, 85.2, #463, D5 #62), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (1-4, 88.4, #437, D5 #59), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (1-3, 96.7, #397, D5 #51), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 96.4, #392, D5 #48), 38% (likely needs 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 100.7, #360, D5 #46), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 99.1, #373, D5 #49), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 113.8, #255, D5 #26), 86% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 40% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Last season 117.5