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Rankings
#33 of 106 in Division 5
#15 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #63 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D5 (+74 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-20 H #242 Mohawk (6-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 130
08/28 L 26-7 A #291 W. Reserve (Collins) (7-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 84
09/04 W 58-48 A #496 Brookside (1-6) D4 R14, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 98
09/11 W 26-7 H #449 Huron (0-7) D6 R22, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 113
09/18 W 41-6 A #673 St Thomas Aquinas (2-5) D6 R21, pick: W by 46 (99%), perf. rating 87
09/25 W 7-0 A #481 Lakota (3-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 19 (89%), perf. rating 96
10/02 W 45-14 A #417 Northwood (4-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 3 (58%), perf. rating 141
10/09 H #318 Woodmore (7-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/16 A #387 Gibsonburg (2-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/23 H #584 Ottawa Hills (3-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
19.81 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#5 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 79% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.56 (15.53-21.78) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 35%
Lose: 15.42 (11.44-17.69) 99% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Vermilion (6-1) 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
(54%) 9W: 19.81 (18.20-21.78) 100% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 41%
(34%) 8W: 16.13 (14.21-19.97) 100% in, 71% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Vermilion (6-1) 25%
(12%) 7W: 14.26 (12.70-16.79) 99% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Vermilion (6-1) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(54%) WWW: 19.81 (18.20-21.78) 100% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 41%
(11%) WLW: 18.20 (16.68-19.97) 100% in, 95% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), North Union (5-2) 20%
(23%) LWW: 15.83 (14.21-17.69) 100% in, 60% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Vermilion (6-1) 29%
(11%) LLW: 14.26 (12.70-16.08) 99% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Vermilion (6-1) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 110.0, #296, D5 #33), likely in, 79% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 6 (5-1, 103.3, #338, D5 #36), 85% (bubble if 6-4), 44% home (maybe if 8-2), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 5 (4-1, 105.1, #323, D5 #35), 83% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home (maybe if 8-2), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 4 (3-1, 104.9, #328, D5 #37), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 42% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye, proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 101.9, #358, D5 #43), 73% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye, proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 106.0, #318, D5 #37), 77% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye, proj. #11 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 117.1, #232, D5 #19), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home (maybe if 8-2), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 114.4, #247, D5 #25), 70% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 16% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #7 at 8-2
Last season 122.1