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Rankings
#18 of 107 in Division 6
#6 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #19 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #32 in D6 (+32 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-20 A #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (18%), perf. rating 111
08/29 W 21-0 H #350 W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 132
09/05 W 48-7 H #632 Brookside (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 41 (99%), perf. rating 113
09/12 W 42-0 A #568 Willard (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 32 (97%), perf. rating 133
09/19 H #508 Northwood (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/26 A #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/03 A #149 Hopewell-Loudon (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/10 A #406 Calvert (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/17 H #503 Lakota (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/24 H #280 Gibsonburg (3-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 5 (63%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
96% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 33% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.35 ( 6.60-23.70) 97% in, 72% home, 34% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 35%
Lose: 10.80 ( 4.40-20.90) 72% in, 31% home, 2% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Seneca East (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 22.30 (21.05-23.70) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(31%) 8W: 18.35 (16.75-22.45) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 77%
(31%) 7W: 15.00 (13.00-18.95) 100% in, 90% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Seneca East (3-1) 12%
(21%) 6W: 12.10 (10.45-15.35) 98% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 14%
( 8%) 5W: 9.80 ( 7.85-12.30) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (3-1) 16%
( 1%) 4W: 7.70 ( 6.35- 9.80) 15% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 22.30 (21.05-23.70) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 19.00 (17.60-21.15) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 88%
(27%) WWLWWW: 18.30 (16.75-20.25) 100% home, 76% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 76%
(11%) WWLWWL: 15.00 (13.30-16.85) 100% in, 96% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Woodmore (4-0) 16%
(15%) WLLWWW: 14.85 (13.00-17.05) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Paulding (4-0) 13%
( 4%) WLLLWW: 12.70 (11.20-14.85) 99% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 13%
(13%) WLLWWL: 11.75 (10.45-14.05) 97% in, 9% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 14%
( 6%) WLLLWL: 9.80 ( 8.20-11.60) 69% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Archbold (3-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 114.7, #260, D6 #18), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 33% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 115.4, #249, D6 #14), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 110.4, #292, D6 #21), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 72% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 100.0, #360, D6 #32), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 93.8, #418, D6 #38), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 93.4