Region 18 home page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Eitel Region 18 page
Eitel team page
Team history page
Rankings
#37 of 105 in Division 5
#16 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #73 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #43 in D5 (-10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-20 H #335 Mohawk (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 117
08/28 L 26-7 A #251 W. Reserve (Collins) (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 89
09/04 A #588 Brookside (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 32 (96%)
09/11 H #395 Huron (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 13 (78%)
09/18 A #678 St Thomas Aquinas (1-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 48 (99%)
09/25 A #517 Lakota (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/02 A #511 Northwood (1-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/09 H #361 Woodmore (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/16 A #379 Gibsonburg (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/23 H #553 Ottawa Hills (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
4.56 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#11 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
72% (bubble if 7-3), 32% home (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.56 ( 1.18- 5.50) 73% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Bluffton (2-0) 10%
Lose: 3.34 ( 1.11- 4.91) 24% in, 5% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(35%) 9W: 5.16 ( 4.81- 5.50) 100% in, 78% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Vermilion (1-1) 9%
(30%) 8W: 4.56 ( 4.09- 5.07) 94% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Bluffton (2-0) 11%
(18%) 7W: 3.94 ( 3.57- 4.47) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Archbold (2-0) 15%
(11%) 6W: 3.37 ( 2.90- 3.90) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 5%) 5W: 2.80 ( 2.51- 3.18) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(35%) WWWWWWWW: 5.16 ( 4.81- 5.50) 100% in, 78% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Vermilion (1-1) 9%
( 5%) WLWWWWWW: 4.73 ( 4.43- 5.07) 97% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Bluffton (2-0) 13%
(11%) WWWWWWLW: 4.60 ( 4.26- 4.96) 96% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Bluffton (2-0) 13%
( 9%) WWWWWLWW: 4.42 ( 4.09- 4.76) 90% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Archbold (2-0) 13%
( 2%) WLWWWWLW: 4.14 ( 3.95- 4.47) 60% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Archbold (2-0) 19%
( 2%) WLWWWLWW: 4.00 ( 3.72- 4.23) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Eastwood (1-1) 12%
( 6%) WWWWWLLW: 3.89 ( 3.59- 4.29) 44% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (2-0) 18%
( 4%) WLWWWLLW: 3.44 ( 3.19- 3.73) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Oak Harbor (2-0) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 106.0, #318, D5 #37), 77% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye, proj. #11 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 117.1, #232, D5 #19), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home (maybe if 8-2), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 114.4, #247, D5 #25), 70% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 16% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #7 at 8-2
Last season 122.1