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Rankings
#2 of 105 in Division 5
#1 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #18 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #4 in D5 (+642 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 38-7 H #290 Genoa Area (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 155
08/28 W 41-15 A #73 St Henry (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 186
09/04 W 38-7 H #331 Tinora (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 149
09/11 W 38-7 H #155 Delta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 173
09/18 A #564 Evergreen (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/25 A #594 Swanton (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/02 H #376 Wauseon (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/09 A #220 Patrick Henry (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/16 H #413 Bryan (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/23 A #35 Liberty Center (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
20.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 64% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.85 (13.70-26.85) 99% in, 99% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 64%
Lose: 19.42 (14.40-25.25) 100% in, 95% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 40%
Based on eventual number of wins
(38%) 10W: 24.45 (21.30-26.85) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(56%) 9W: 20.10 (17.25-25.50) 100% in, 99% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 46%
( 6%) 8W: 17.80 (14.35-21.55) 100% in, 88% home, 13% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), Galion (2-2) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(38%) WWWWWW: 24.45 (21.30-26.85) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 1%) WWWLWW: 21.17 (18.50-23.40) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 67%
(55%) WWWWWL: 20.05 (17.25-22.50) 100% in, 99% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 45%
( 1%) LWWWWL: 19.30 (17.15-21.25) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 31%
( 1%) WLWWWL: 18.83 (16.45-21.55) 100% in, 98% home, 25% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), bye 25%
( 1%) WWWWLL: 18.45 (15.65-20.75) 100% in, 97% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
( 1%) WWLWWL: 18.15 (15.80-20.15) 100% in, 93% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Galion (2-2) 10%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 16.90 (14.35-19.45) 100% in, 78% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Galion (2-2) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 157.9, #40, D5 #2), likely in and likely home, 64% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 153.9, #50, D5 #2), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 8-2), 51% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 151.6, #56, D5 #4), 98% (bubble if 7-3), 85% home (maybe if 8-2), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 139.2, #96, D5 #6), 86% (bubble if 6-4), 57% home (maybe if 8-2), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 125.7, #169, D5 #15), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 132.3