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Rankings
#9 of 107 in Division 6
#4 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #3 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #2 in D6 (+572 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 33-28 A #202 Genoa Area (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 132
08/29 L 27-19 H #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 129
09/05 W 35-27 A #318 Tinora (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 121
09/12 W 36-30 A #229 Delta (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 3 (57%), perf. rating 129
09/19 H #289 Evergreen (4-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 17 (86%)
09/26 H #626 Swanton (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/03 A #382 Wauseon (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/10 H #153 Patrick Henry (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/17 A #479 Bryan (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/24 H #34 Liberty Center (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.95 (11.30-25.70) 100% in, 98% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 49%
Lose: 13.05 ( 9.30-22.20) 98% in, 49% home, 8% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Evergreen (4-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 24.40 (23.05-25.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(33%) 8W: 19.95 (17.30-23.90) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(47%) 7W: 16.20 (14.20-21.35) 100% in, 98% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
(14%) 6W: 13.60 (10.90-18.15) 99% in, 62% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Evergreen (4-0) 12%
( 3%) 5W: 11.58 ( 9.40-15.45) 92% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 24.40 (23.05-25.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 2%) WWWLWW: 20.55 (19.05-21.85) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 96%
(31%) WWWWWL: 19.95 (17.30-21.70) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 16.50 (14.75-18.15) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 33%
(41%) WWWLWL: 16.15 (14.20-18.25) 100% in, 98% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 14%
( 4%) WWLLWL: 14.75 (12.35-17.25) 100% in, 89% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 13%
( 8%) LWWLWL: 13.00 (10.90-14.80) 99% in, 41% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Evergreen (4-0) 15%
( 2%) LWLLWL: 11.50 ( 9.70-13.35) 89% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 125.4, #185, D6 #9), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 123.5, #197, D6 #9), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 76% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 122.0, #207, D6 #10), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 117.5, #232, D6 #13), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 62% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 116.6, #229, D6 #13), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 108.1