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Rankings
#3 of 106 in Division 5
#1 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #18 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D5 (+423 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 38-7 H #188 Genoa Area (5-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 169
08/28 W 41-15 A #67 St Henry (4-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 186
09/04 W 38-7 H #347 Tinora (3-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 147
09/11 W 38-7 H #201 Delta (5-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 167
09/18 W 54-0 A #557 Evergreen (0-7) D6 R22, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 134
09/25 W 72-0 A #593 Swanton (1-6) D5 R18, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 125
10/02 W 48-7 H #408 Wauseon (1-6) D4 R14, pick: W by 43 (99%), perf. rating 153
10/09 A #164 Patrick Henry (5-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 H #394 Bryan (2-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/23 A #36 Liberty Center (7-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
20.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 86% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.95 (17.70-26.15) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 91%
Lose: 17.40 (15.05-22.65) 100% in, 93% home, 18% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#10), bye 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
(29%) 10W: 25.00 (23.20-26.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(64%) 9W: 20.75 (19.10-24.40) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 88%
( 7%) 8W: 17.40 (15.85-20.40) 100% in, 93% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), North Union (5-2) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(29%) WWW: 25.00 (23.20-26.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 1%) LWW: 21.52 (20.55-22.65) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(63%) WWL: 20.67 (19.10-22.10) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
( 6%) LWL: 17.15 (15.85-18.25) 100% in, 92% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), North Union (5-2) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (7-0, 153.7, #46, D5 #3), appears locked in and likely home, 86% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 6 (6-0, 154.9, #48, D5 #3), appears locked in and likely home, 83% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 5 (5-0, 158.6, #39, D5 #3), appears locked in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 4 (4-0, 157.9, #40, D5 #2), likely in and likely home, 64% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 153.9, #50, D5 #2), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 8-2), 51% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 151.6, #56, D5 #4), 98% (bubble if 7-3), 85% home (maybe if 8-2), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 139.2, #96, D5 #6), 86% (bubble if 6-4), 57% home (maybe if 8-2), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 125.7, #169, D5 #15), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 132.3