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Region 14 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#63 of 105 in Division 4
#19 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #15 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D4 (-518 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-28 H #247 Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 105
08/29 L 42-14 A #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 24 (11%), perf. rating 75
09/05 L 35-13 A #166 Eastwood (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 98
09/12 L 14-7 A #289 Evergreen (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 102
09/19 H #153 Patrick Henry (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 A #229 Delta (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/03 H #185 Archbold (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/10 H #479 Bryan (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/17 A #34 Liberty Center (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/24 H #626 Swanton (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.70 ( 2.95-15.60) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 1.95 ( 0.00-12.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 7.55 ( 6.65-10.10) 7% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(15%) 3W: 4.90 ( 4.05- 8.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(69%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.95- 5.85) out, proj. out
(13%) 1W: 0.45 ( 0.45- 2.15) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWLW: 7.15 ( 6.65- 8.80) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bay (3-1) 50%
( 3%) WLLWLW: 5.30 ( 4.45- 6.15) out
( 6%) LLWWLW: 5.00 ( 4.50- 6.70) out
( 6%) LWLWLW: 4.50 ( 4.05- 5.35) out
(67%) LLLWLW: 1.95 ( 1.95- 3.65) out
( 1%) LLLWLL: 1.50 ( 1.05- 1.95) out
(12%) LLLLLW: 0.45 ( 0.45- 1.40) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 98.3, #382, D4 #63), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 96.9, #390, D4 #62), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 91.1, #425, D4 #71), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 94.2, #410, D4 #68), 7% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 98.6, #366, D4 #62), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 93.4